Projections
Regular-season, finals and premiership probabilities
Premier League
Projected order from 10,000 simulations| Proj Pos | Team | Current Pts | Projected Pts |
Avg Finish | Finals% | GF% | Win% | Relegation% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Doncaster | 52 | 52.0 | 1.0 | 100.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 2 | MCC | 50 | 50.0 | 2.0 | 100.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 0.0% |
| 3 | Camberwell | 50 | 50.0 | 3.0 | 100.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 4 | Southern United | 41 | 41.0 | 4.0 | 100.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 5 | KBH Brumbies | 34 | 34.0 | 5.0 | 100.0% | 100.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 6 | Hawthorn | 32 | 32.0 | 6.0 | 100.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 7 | Waverley | 30 | 30.0 | 7.0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 8 | Altona | 29 | 29.0 | 8.0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 9 | Greensborough | 29 | 29.0 | 9.0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 10 | Footscray | 18 | 18.0 | 10.0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 11 | Essendon | 11 | 11.0 | 11.0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 100.0% |
| 12 | Mentone | 0 | 0.0 | 12.0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 100.0% |
Vic League 1
Projected order from 10,000 simulations| Proj Pos | Team | Current Pts | Projected Pts |
Avg Finish | Finals% | GF% | Win% | Relegation% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Old Xaverians | 50 | 50.0 | 1.0 | 100.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 2 | Geelong | 49 | 49.0 | 2.0 | 100.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 0.0% |
| 3 | PEGS | 47 | 47.0 | 3.0 | 100.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 4 | Yarra | 42 | 42.0 | 4.0 | 100.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 5 | Craigieburn | 37 | 37.0 | 5.0 | 100.0% | 100.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 6 | TEM | 37 | 37.0 | 6.0 | 100.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 7 | MUHC | 34 | 34.0 | 7.0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 8 | Casey | 22 | 22.0 | 8.0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 9 | North West Lightning | 22 | 22.0 | 9.0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 10 | WestVic | 19 | 19.0 | 10.0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 11 | Monash University | 12 | 12.0 | 11.0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 100.0% |
| 12 | ECHO | 10 | 10.0 | 12.0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 100.0% |
Vic League 2
Projected order from 10,000 simulations| Proj Pos | Team | Current Pts | Projected Pts |
Avg Finish | Finals% | GF% | Win% | Relegation% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | GD Warriors | 37 | 37.0 | 1.0 | 100.0% | 100.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 2 | Bayside/Powerhouse | 35 | 35.0 | 2.0 | 100.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 3 | St Bede's | 34 | 34.0 | 3.0 | 100.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 4 | Brunswick | 29 | 29.0 | 4.0 | 100.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 0.0% |
| 5 | Werribee | 22 | 22.0 | 5.0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 6 | Frankston | 19 | 19.0 | 6.0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 7 | Knox | 17 | 17.0 | 7.0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 8 | MHSOB | 8 | 8.0 | 8.0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 100.0% |
| 9 | Caroline Springs | 6 | 6.0 | 9.0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 100.0% |
Vic League 3
Projected order from 10,000 simulations| Proj Pos | Team | Current Pts | Projected Pts |
Avg Finish | Finals% | GF% | Win% | Relegation% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Gippsland Strikers | 50 | 50.0 | 1.0 | 100.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 0.0% |
| 2 | Melton | 43 | 43.0 | 2.0 | 100.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 3 | La Trobe University | 43 | 43.0 | 3.0 | 100.0% | 100.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 4 | RMIT | 33 | 33.0 | 4.0 | 100.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 5 | Old Trinity | 27 | 27.0 | 5.0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 6 | Melbourne Sikhs | 20 | 20.0 | 6.0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 7 | Croydon | 15 | 15.0 | 7.0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 8 | Melbourne Razorbacks | 13 | 13.0 | 8.0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 9 | Hume | 9 | 9.0 | 9.0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 10 | East Gippsland | 4 | 4.0 | 10.0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
Premier League finishing-position distribution
Probability of each regular-season finishing position| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Doncaster | 100.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| MCC | 0.0% | 100.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Camberwell | 0.0% | 0.0% | 100.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Southern United | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 100.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| KBH Brumbies | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 100.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Hawthorn | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 100.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Waverley | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 100.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Altona | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 100.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Greensborough | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 100.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Footscray | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 100.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Essendon | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 100.0% | 0.0% |
| Mentone | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 100.0% |
Vic League 1 finishing-position distribution
Probability of each regular-season finishing position| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Old Xaverians | 100.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Geelong | 0.0% | 100.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| PEGS | 0.0% | 0.0% | 100.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Yarra | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 100.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Craigieburn | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 100.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| TEM | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 100.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| MUHC | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 100.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Casey | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 100.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| North West Lightning | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 100.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| WestVic | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 100.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Monash University | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 100.0% | 0.0% |
| ECHO | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 100.0% |
Vic League 2 finishing-position distribution
Probability of each regular-season finishing position| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GD Warriors | 100.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Bayside/Powerhouse | 0.0% | 100.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| St Bede's | 0.0% | 0.0% | 100.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Brunswick | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 100.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Werribee | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 100.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Frankston | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 100.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Knox | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 100.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| MHSOB | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 100.0% | 0.0% |
| Caroline Springs | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 100.0% |
Vic League 3 finishing-position distribution
Probability of each regular-season finishing position| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gippsland Strikers | 100.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Melton | 0.0% | 100.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| La Trobe University | 0.0% | 0.0% | 100.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| RMIT | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 100.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Old Trinity | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 100.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Melbourne Sikhs | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 100.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Croydon | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 100.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Melbourne Razorbacks | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 100.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Hume | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 100.0% | 0.0% |
| East Gippsland | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 100.0% |
Based on 10,000 simulations. Every unplayed fixture is identified by blank Home Score and Away Score cells. Match scores use fixed current Elo ratings, normal home advantage unless marked neutral, and current eight-match PI momentum weighted at 0.36. Simulated results do not update Elo or momentum. Finals are then simulated using the competition-specific bracket. GF% is the chance of reaching the grand final; Win% is the chance of winning it.