Fixtures
Upcoming matches, winning expectancies and Elo exchanges
Scenario positions are provisional and use current points; future goal-difference changes cannot be predicted. GB is the simulated points difference from the final qualifying position divided by three points per win. First place in each non-Premier division is the direct-promotion position.
Why this game?
It received the highest Game to Watch score among the upcoming Premier League fixtures (5%). The model combines ladder impact (5%), shared race stakes (0%), and expected match closeness (13%). Current stakes: Southern United: 6pt below top-two bye; Live matchup.
Previous encounters · 7
| Season | Round | Venue | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 3 | Away | Mentone | 1–5 | Southern United |
| 2023 | 4 | Away | Mentone | 0–6 | Southern United |
| 2022 | 8 | Home | Southern United | 4–0 | Mentone |
| 2019 | 17 | Home | Southern United | 3–1 | Mentone |
| 2019 | 3 | Away | Mentone | 0–4 | Southern United |
| 2018 | 14 | Away | Mentone | 2–3 | Southern United |
| 2017 | 9 | Home | Southern United | 6–1 | Mentone |
Upcoming matches, winning expectancies, and estimates of Elo points exchanged
| Round | Match | Division | Current | Three-way outcome probability | Points Exchanged | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rank | Rating | Team win | Draw | Draw | Win × 1 | Win × 2 | Win × 3 | Win × 4 | Win × 5 | |||
| Round 14 | Southern United | Premier League | 4 | 2155 | 89% | 7% | -15 | +3 | +4 | +5 | +5 | +6 |
| Mentone | 13 | 1747 | 4% | +15 | +32 | +44 | +55 | +66 | +78 | |||
| Round 14.1 | Footscray | Premier League | 10 | 1958 | 19% | 7% | +10 | +27 | +37 | +46 | +56 | +65 |
| Camberwell | 2 | 2200 | 74% | -10 | +8 | +11 | +13 | +16 | +19 | |||
| Round 14.1 | KBH Brumbies | Premier League | 5 | 2082 | 32% | 17% | +3 | +21 | +28 | +35 | +43 | +50 |
| Doncaster | 3 | 2175 | 51% | -3 | +14 | +19 | +24 | +29 | +34 | |||
| Round 14.1 | MCC | Premier League | 1 | 2213 | 66% | 13% | -8 | +10 | +13 | +16 | +20 | +23 |
| Hawthorn | 6 | 2070 | 21% | +8 | +25 | +34 | +43 | +52 | +61 | |||
| Round 15 | Essendon | Premier League | 11 | 1869 | 11% | 7% | +12 | +30 | +40 | +51 | +61 | +72 |
| Camberwell | 2 | 2200 | 82% | -12 | +5 | +7 | +9 | +11 | +12 | |||
| Round 15 | Greensborough | Premier League | 9 | 1977 | 37% | 16% | +2 | +19 | +26 | +33 | +40 | +46 |
| Altona | 8 | 2039 | 47% | -2 | +16 | +21 | +27 | +32 | +38 | |||
| Round 15 | Hawthorn | Premier League | 6 | 2070 | 33% | 17% | +3 | +20 | +28 | +35 | +42 | +49 |
| Southern United | 4 | 2155 | 50% | -3 | +15 | +20 | +25 | +30 | +35 | |||
| Round 15 | MCC | Premier League | 1 | 2213 | 80% | 7% | -12 | +6 | +8 | +10 | +12 | +14 |
| Footscray | 10 | 1958 | 13% | +12 | +29 | +39 | +50 | +60 | +70 | |||
| Round 15 | Mentone | Premier League | 13 | 1747 | 11% | 7% | +12 | +30 | +40 | +51 | +61 | +72 |
| KBH Brumbies | 5 | 2082 | 82% | -12 | +5 | +7 | +9 | +10 | +12 | |||
| Round 15 | Waverley | Premier League | 7 | 2039 | 28% | 13% | +5 | +23 | +31 | +39 | +47 | +55 |
| Doncaster | 3 | 2175 | 59% | -5 | +12 | +16 | +21 | +25 | +29 | |||
| Round 16 | Altona | Premier League | 8 | 2039 | 83% | 7% | -13 | +5 | +7 | +8 | +10 | +12 |
| Mentone | 13 | 1747 | 10% | +13 | +30 | +41 | +51 | +62 | +72 | |||
| Round 16 | Doncaster | Premier League | 3 | 2175 | 43% | 14% | +0 | +18 | +24 | +30 | +36 | +42 |
| Camberwell | 2 | 2200 | 43% | +0 | +18 | +24 | +30 | +36 | +42 | |||
| Round 16 | Footscray | Premier League | 10 | 1958 | 44% | 14% | +0 | +17 | +23 | +29 | +35 | +41 |
| Greensborough | 9 | 1977 | 42% | +0 | +18 | +24 | +30 | +36 | +43 | |||
| Round 16 | KBH Brumbies | Premier League | 5 | 2082 | 47% | 16% | -2 | +16 | +21 | +27 | +32 | +38 |
| Hawthorn | 6 | 2070 | 37% | +2 | +19 | +26 | +33 | +40 | +46 | |||
| Round 16 | Southern United | Premier League | 4 | 2155 | 82% | 7% | -12 | +5 | +7 | +9 | +10 | +12 |
| Essendon | 11 | 1869 | 11% | +12 | +30 | +40 | +51 | +61 | +72 | |||
| Round 16 | Waverley | Premier League | 7 | 2039 | 23% | 14% | +7 | +25 | +33 | +42 | +50 | +59 |
| MCC | 1 | 2213 | 63% | -7 | +10 | +14 | +18 | +21 | +25 | |||
| Round 17 | Camberwell | Premier League | 2 | 2200 | 51% | 17% | -3 | +14 | +19 | +24 | +29 | +34 |
| Southern United | 4 | 2155 | 31% | +3 | +21 | +28 | +36 | +43 | +50 | |||
| Round 17 | Essendon | Premier League | 11 | 1869 | 22% | 6% | +9 | +26 | +35 | +44 | +54 | +63 |
| KBH Brumbies | 5 | 2082 | 72% | -9 | +9 | +12 | +15 | +18 | +21 | |||
| Round 17 | Greensborough | Premier League | 9 | 1977 | 37% | 16% | +2 | +19 | +26 | +33 | +40 | +46 |
| Waverley | 7 | 2039 | 47% | -2 | +16 | +21 | +27 | +32 | +38 | |||
| Round 17 | Hawthorn | Premier League | 6 | 2070 | 49% | 17% | -3 | +15 | +20 | +25 | +30 | +35 |
| Altona | 8 | 2039 | 33% | +3 | +20 | +27 | +35 | +42 | +49 | |||
| Round 17 | MCC | Premier League | 1 | 2213 | 50% | 17% | -3 | +14 | +19 | +24 | +29 | +34 |
| Doncaster | 3 | 2175 | 32% | +3 | +21 | +28 | +35 | +42 | +50 | |||
| Round 17 | Mentone | Premier League | 13 | 1747 | 22% | 6% | +9 | +26 | +35 | +44 | +53 | +63 |
| Footscray | 10 | 1958 | 71% | -9 | +9 | +12 | +15 | +18 | +21 | |||
| Round 18 | Altona | Premier League | 8 | 2039 | 72% | 6% | -9 | +9 | +12 | +15 | +18 | +21 |
| Essendon | 11 | 1869 | 21% | +9 | +26 | +36 | +45 | +54 | +63 | |||
| Round 18 | Doncaster | Premier League | 3 | 2175 | 48% | 16% | -2 | +15 | +21 | +26 | +31 | +37 |
| Southern United | 4 | 2155 | 35% | +2 | +20 | +27 | +34 | +40 | +47 | |||
| Round 18 | Footscray | Premier League | 10 | 1958 | 31% | 13% | +4 | +22 | +29 | +37 | +45 | +52 |
| Hawthorn | 6 | 2070 | 56% | -4 | +13 | +18 | +22 | +27 | +32 | |||
| Round 18 | KBH Brumbies | Premier League | 5 | 2082 | 30% | 13% | +5 | +22 | +30 | +38 | +45 | +53 |
| Camberwell | 2 | 2200 | 57% | -5 | +13 | +17 | +22 | +26 | +31 | |||
| Round 18 | MCC | Premier League | 1 | 2213 | 78% | 7% | -11 | +6 | +9 | +11 | +13 | +15 |
| Greensborough | 9 | 1977 | 15% | +11 | +29 | +39 | +49 | +59 | +69 | |||
| Round 18 | Waverley | Premier League | 7 | 2039 | 83% | 7% | -13 | +5 | +7 | +8 | +10 | +12 |
| Mentone | 13 | 1747 | 10% | +13 | +30 | +41 | +51 | +62 | +72 | |||
Current-season results
| Round | Division | Match | Rating | Rank | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Club | Score | Change | New | Change | Current | ||
| Round 14 | Men's Premier League | Footscray | 2 | +4 | 1958 | +0 | 10 |
| Waverley | 2 | -4 | 2039 | +0 | 8 | ||
| Round 14 | Men's Premier League | KBH Brumbies | 4 | +12 | 2082 | +0 | 6 |
| Greensborough | 2 | -12 | 1977 | +0 | 9 | ||
| Round 14 | Men's Premier League | Essendon | 0 | -8 | 1869 | +0 | 11 |
| Doncaster | 4 | +8 | 2175 | +0 | 3 | ||
| Round 14 | Men's Premier League | Altona | 2 | -15 | 2039 | +0 | 7 |
| MCC | 5 | +15 | 2213 | +0 | 1 | ||
| Round 14 | Men's Premier League | Camberwell | 5 | +13 | 2200 | +0 | 2 |
| Hawthorn | 2 | -13 | 2070 | -1 | 6 | ||
| Round 13.1 | Men's Premier League | Altona | 2 | +4 | 2054 | +0 | 7 |
| Southern United | 2 | -4 | 2155 | +0 | 4 | ||
| Round 13.1 | Men's Premier League | Waverley | 4 | +6 | 2043 | +0 | 8 |
| Essendon | 3 | -6 | 1877 | +0 | 11 | ||
| Round 13.1 | Men's Premier League | Greensborough | 4 | +7 | 1989 | +0 | 9 |
| Mentone | 2 | -7 | 1747 | +0 | 12 | ||
| Round 13 | Men's Premier League | Footscray | 2 | -6 | 1954 | +0 | 10 |
| Doncaster | 3 | +6 | 2167 | +0 | 3 | ||
| Round 13 | Men's Premier League | Hawthorn | 3 | +8 | 2083 | +0 | 5 |
| Essendon | 1 | -8 | 1883 | +0 | 11 | ||
| Round 13 | Men's Premier League | MCC | 2 | -21 | 2198 | +0 | 1 |
| KBH Brumbies | 3 | +21 | 2070 | +1 | 6 | ||
| Round 13 | Men's Premier League | Greensborough | 1 | -16 | 1982 | +0 | 9 |
| Southern United | 4 | +16 | 2159 | +0 | 4 | ||
| Round 13 | Men's Premier League | Mentone | 2 | -3 | 1754 | +0 | 12 |
| Camberwell | 5 | +3 | 2187 | +0 | 2 | ||
| Round 13 | Men's Premier League | Waverley | 3 | +14 | 2037 | +0 | 8 |
| Altona | 2 | -14 | 2050 | +0 | 7 | ||
| Round 12 | Men's Premier League | KBH Brumbies | 5 | +11 | 2049 | +0 | 7 |
| Waverley | 4 | -11 | 2023 | +0 | 8 | ||
| Round 12 | Men's Premier League | Altona | 6 | +13 | 2064 | +0 | 6 |
| Footscray | 4 | -13 | 1960 | +0 | 10 | ||
| Round 12 | Men's Premier League | Camberwell | 1 | +5 | 2184 | +0 | 2 |
| Greensborough | 0 | -5 | 1998 | +0 | 9 | ||
| Round 12 | Men's Premier League | Doncaster | 4 | -7 | 2161 | +0 | 3 |
| Hawthorn | 4 | +7 | 2075 | +0 | 5 | ||
| Round 12 | Men's Premier League | Mentone | 2 | -8 | 1757 | +0 | 12 |
| Essendon | 3 | +8 | 1891 | +0 | 11 | ||
| Round 12 | Men's Premier League | Southern United | 2 | +3 | 2143 | +0 | 4 |
| MCC | 2 | -3 | 2219 | +0 | 1 | ||
| Round 11 | Men's Premier League | Hawthorn | 4 | +7 | 2068 | +1 | 5 |
| Mentone | 0 | -7 | 1765 | +0 | 12 | ||
| Round 11 | Men's Premier League | KBH Brumbies | 3 | +21 | 2038 | +0 | 7 |
| Footscray | 0 | -21 | 1973 | -1 | 10 | ||
| Round 11 | Men's Premier League | Essendon | 1 | -18 | 1883 | +0 | 11 |
| Greensborough | 4 | +18 | 2003 | +0 | 9 | ||
| Round 11 | Men's Premier League | Camberwell | 5 | +35 | 2179 | +2 | 2 |
| MCC | 1 | -35 | 2222 | +0 | 1 | ||
| Round 11 | Men's Premier League | Doncaster | 3 | +15 | 2168 | +1 | 3 |
| Altona | 0 | -15 | 2051 | +0 | 6 | ||
| Round 11 | Men's Premier League | Southern United | 1 | -20 | 2140 | +0 | 4 |
| Waverley | 2 | +20 | 2034 | +0 | 8 | ||
| Round 10 | Men's Premier League | Footscray | 0 | -12 | 1994 | -1 | 9 |
| Southern United | 2 | +12 | 2160 | +1 | 2 | ||
| Round 10 | Men's Premier League | MCC | 6 | +6 | 2257 | +0 | 1 |
| Essendon | 0 | -6 | 1901 | +0 | 11 | ||
| Round 10 | Men's Premier League | Greensborough | 3 | +15 | 1985 | +0 | 10 |
| Hawthorn | 2 | -15 | 2061 | +0 | 6 | ||
| Round 10 | Men's Premier League | Altona | 1 | -17 | 2066 | +0 | 5 |
| KBH Brumbies | 2 | +17 | 2017 | +0 | 8 | ||
| Round 10 | Men's Premier League | Mentone | 2 | -3 | 1772 | +0 | 12 |
| Doncaster | 4 | +3 | 2153 | +0 | 3 | ||
| Round 10 | Men's Premier League | Waverley | 1 | -8 | 2014 | -1 | 8 |
| Camberwell | 2 | +8 | 2144 | +0 | 4 | ||
| Round 9 | Men's Premier League | Hawthorn | 3 | -7 | 2076 | +0 | 6 |
| MCC | 4 | +7 | 2251 | +0 | 1 | ||
| Round 9 | Men's Premier League | Essendon | 3 | -8 | 1907 | +0 | 11 |
| Waverley | 4 | +8 | 2022 | +1 | 7 | ||
| Round 9 | Men's Premier League | Camberwell | 4 | +14 | 2136 | +0 | 4 |
| Footscray | 1 | -14 | 2006 | +0 | 8 | ||
| Round 9 | Men's Premier League | Doncaster | 3 | +6 | 2150 | +0 | 2 |
| KBH Brumbies | 2 | -6 | 2000 | +0 | 9 | ||
| Round 9 | Men's Premier League | Mentone | 0 | -18 | 1775 | +0 | 12 |
| Greensborough | 7 | +18 | 1970 | +0 | 10 | ||
| Round 9 | Men's Premier League | Southern United | 3 | +9 | 2148 | +0 | 3 |
| Altona | 2 | -9 | 2083 | +0 | 5 | ||
| Round 8.1 | Men's Premier League | Footscray | 4 | +12 | 2020 | +1 | 8 |
| KBH Brumbies | 3 | -12 | 2006 | -1 | 9 | ||
| Round 8.1 | Men's Premier League | MCC | 7 | +15 | 2244 | +0 | 1 |
| Camberwell | 4 | -15 | 2122 | -1 | 4 | ||
| Round 8.1 | Men's Premier League | Altona | 3 | +14 | 2092 | +0 | 5 |
| Doncaster | 2 | -14 | 2144 | +0 | 2 | ||
| Round 8.1 | Men's Premier League | Mentone | 0 | -11 | 1793 | +0 | 12 |
| Hawthorn | 6 | +11 | 2083 | +0 | 6 | ||
| Round 8.1 | Men's Premier League | Waverley | 2 | -9 | 2014 | -1 | 8 |
| Southern United | 3 | +9 | 2139 | +0 | 3 | ||
| Round 8.1 | Men's Premier League | Greensborough | 3 | +22 | 1952 | +1 | 10 |
| Essendon | 0 | -22 | 1915 | -1 | 11 | ||
| Round 8 | Men's Premier League | Footscray | 2 | -18 | 2008 | -2 | 9 |
| Essendon | 3 | +18 | 1937 | +0 | 11 | ||
| Round 8 | Men's Premier League | MCC | 8 | +4 | 2229 | +0 | 1 |
| Mentone | 1 | -4 | 1804 | +0 | 12 | ||
| Round 8 | Men's Premier League | KBH Brumbies | 2 | +5 | 2018 | +0 | 8 |
| Southern United | 2 | -5 | 2130 | +0 | 4 | ||
| Round 8 | Men's Premier League | Greensborough | 1 | -15 | 1930 | -1 | 11 |
| Doncaster | 5 | +15 | 2158 | +0 | 3 | ||
| Round 8 | Men's Premier League | Altona | 3 | +25 | 2078 | +1 | 5 |
| Camberwell | 1 | -25 | 2137 | -1 | 3 | ||
| Round 8 | Men's Premier League | Waverley | 2 | +1 | 2023 | +0 | 7 |
| Hawthorn | 2 | -1 | 2072 | +0 | 6 | ||
| Round 7 | Men's Premier League | Hawthorn | 4 | +21 | 2073 | +1 | 5 |
| Footscray | 1 | -21 | 2026 | +0 | 7 | ||
| Round 7 | Men's Premier League | Essendon | 4 | +7 | 1919 | +0 | 11 |
| Altona | 4 | -7 | 2053 | +0 | 6 | ||
| Round 7 | Men's Premier League | Greensborough | 3 | -8 | 1945 | +0 | 10 |
| MCC | 5 | +8 | 2225 | +0 | 1 | ||
| Round 7 | Men's Premier League | Camberwell | 4 | +12 | 2162 | +0 | 2 |
| KBH Brumbies | 1 | -12 | 2013 | +0 | 8 | ||
| Round 7 | Men's Premier League | Mentone | 3 | -12 | 1808 | +0 | 12 |
| Waverley | 6 | +12 | 2022 | +1 | 8 | ||
| Round 7 | Men's Premier League | Southern United | 1 | -2 | 2135 | +0 | 4 |
| Doncaster | 1 | +2 | 2143 | +0 | 3 | ||
| Round 6 | Men's Premier League | Footscray | 7 | +13 | 2047 | +0 | 7 |
| Mentone | 0 | -13 | 1820 | +0 | 12 | ||
| Round 6 | Men's Premier League | KBH Brumbies | 6 | +16 | 2025 | +0 | 9 |
| Essendon | 3 | -16 | 1912 | +0 | 11 | ||
| Round 6 | Men's Premier League | Altona | 1 | -2 | 2060 | +0 | 5 |
| Hawthorn | 1 | +2 | 2052 | +0 | 6 | ||
| Round 6 | Men's Premier League | Doncaster | 2 | -19 | 2141 | +0 | 3 |
| MCC | 4 | +19 | 2217 | +0 | 1 | ||
| Round 6 | Men's Premier League | Southern United | 3 | -25 | 2137 | -2 | 4 |
| Camberwell | 5 | +25 | 2150 | +2 | 2 | ||
| Round 6 | Men's Premier League | Waverley | 1 | -17 | 2010 | -1 | 9 |
| Greensborough | 2 | +17 | 1953 | +0 | 10 | ||
| Round 5 | Men's Premier League | Hawthorn | 1 | -4 | 2050 | +0 | 5 |
| KBH Brumbies | 1 | +4 | 2009 | +0 | 8 | ||
| Round 5 | Men's Premier League | MCC | 1 | -22 | 2198 | +0 | 1 |
| Waverley | 2 | +22 | 2027 | +1 | 8 | ||
| Round 5 | Men's Premier League | Essendon | 4 | +11 | 1928 | +1 | 10 |
| Southern United | 4 | -11 | 2162 | +0 | 2 | ||
| Round 5 | Men's Premier League | Greensborough | 2 | +15 | 1936 | +1 | 10 |
| Footscray | 1 | -15 | 2034 | -1 | 7 | ||
| Round 5 | Men's Premier League | Camberwell | 3 | -1 | 2125 | +0 | 4 |
| Doncaster | 3 | +1 | 2160 | +0 | 3 | ||
| Round 5 | Men's Premier League | Mentone | 2 | -17 | 1833 | +0 | 12 |
| Altona | 8 | +17 | 2062 | +1 | 5 | ||
| Round 4 | Men's Premier League | Footscray | 2 | -7 | 2049 | +0 | 7 |
| MCC | 3 | +7 | 2220 | +0 | 1 | ||
| Round 4 | Men's Premier League | KBH Brumbies | 9 | +21 | 2005 | +0 | 9 |
| Mentone | 2 | -21 | 1850 | +0 | 12 | ||
| Round 4 | Men's Premier League | Altona | 2 | -20 | 2045 | -2 | 7 |
| Greensborough | 3 | +20 | 1921 | +0 | 11 | ||
| Round 4 | Men's Premier League | Camberwell | 6 | +13 | 2126 | +0 | 4 |
| Essendon | 1 | -13 | 1917 | -1 | 11 | ||
| Round 4 | Men's Premier League | Doncaster | 4 | +13 | 2159 | +0 | 3 |
| Waverley | 1 | -13 | 2005 | -1 | 9 | ||
| Round 4 | Men's Premier League | Southern United | 4 | +11 | 2173 | +0 | 2 |
| Hawthorn | 2 | -11 | 2054 | +0 | 5 | ||
| Round 3 | Men's Premier League | Hawthorn | 5 | +31 | 2065 | +3 | 5 |
| Camberwell | 2 | -31 | 2113 | -1 | 4 | ||
| Round 3 | Men's Premier League | MCC | 1 | -10 | 2213 | +0 | 1 |
| Altona | 1 | +10 | 2065 | +1 | 5 | ||
| Round 3 | Men's Premier League | Greensborough | 2 | +1 | 1901 | +0 | 11 |
| KBH Brumbies | 2 | -1 | 1984 | +0 | 9 | ||
| Round 3 | Men's Premier League | Doncaster | 2 | +5 | 2146 | +0 | 3 |
| Essendon | 1 | -5 | 1930 | +0 | 10 | ||
| Round 3 | Men's Premier League | Mentone | 1 | -10 | 1871 | +0 | 12 |
| Southern United | 5 | +10 | 2162 | +0 | 2 | ||
| Round 3 | Men's Premier League | Waverley | 3 | -22 | 2018 | -1 | 8 |
| Footscray | 5 | +22 | 2056 | +1 | 7 | ||
| Round 2 | Men's Premier League | KBH Brumbies | 0 | -11 | 1985 | +0 | 9 |
| MCC | 3 | +11 | 2223 | +0 | 1 | ||
| Round 2 | Men's Premier League | Essendon | 2 | -9 | 1935 | +0 | 10 |
| Hawthorn | 3 | +9 | 2034 | +0 | 8 | ||
| Round 2 | Men's Premier League | Altona | 3 | +19 | 2055 | +2 | 5 |
| Waverley | 1 | -19 | 2040 | -2 | 7 | ||
| Round 2 | Men's Premier League | Camberwell | 5 | +10 | 2144 | +0 | 3 |
| Mentone | 0 | -10 | 1881 | +0 | 12 | ||
| Round 2 | Men's Premier League | Doncaster | 3 | +13 | 2141 | +0 | 4 |
| Footscray | 1 | -13 | 2034 | -1 | 7 | ||
| Round 2 | Men's Premier League | Southern United | 1 | +4 | 2152 | +0 | 2 |
| Greensborough | 0 | -4 | 1900 | +0 | 11 | ||
| Round 1 | Men's Premier League | Footscray | 4 | -2 | 2047 | +0 | 6 |
| Altona | 4 | +2 | 2036 | +1 | 7 | ||
| Round 1 | Men's Premier League | Hawthorn | 1 | -10 | 2025 | +0 | 8 |
| Doncaster | 2 | +10 | 2128 | +0 | 3 | ||
| Round 1 | Men's Premier League | MCC | 5 | +22 | 2212 | +0 | 1 |
| Southern United | 1 | -22 | 2148 | +0 | 2 | ||
| Round 1 | Men's Premier League | Essendon | 9 | +36 | 1944 | +2 | 10 |
| Mentone | 1 | -36 | 1891 | -2 | 12 | ||
| Round 1 | Men's Premier League | Greensborough | 0 | -21 | 1904 | +0 | 11 |
| Camberwell | 8 | +21 | 2134 | +1 | 3 | ||
| Round 1 | Men's Premier League | Waverley | 2 | -5 | 2059 | +0 | 5 |
| KBH Brumbies | 2 | +5 | 1996 | +0 | 9 | ||
| Round 0.2 | Men's Premier League | Hawthorn | 2 | +0 | 2035 | +0 | 8 |
| Waverley | 2 | +0 | 2064 | +0 | 5 | ||
| Round 0.2 | Men's Premier League | Essendon | 1 | -12 | 1908 | +0 | 12 |
| Footscray | 3 | +12 | 2049 | +0 | 7 | ||
| Round 0.2 | Men's Premier League | Camberwell | 3 | +15 | 2113 | +1 | 3 |
| Altona | 1 | -15 | 2034 | -2 | 8 | ||
| Round 0.2 | Men's Premier League | Doncaster | 4 | +11 | 2118 | +1 | 3 |
| Greensborough | 1 | -11 | 1925 | +0 | 11 | ||
| Round 0.2 | Men's Premier League | Southern United | 4 | +6 | 2170 | +0 | 2 |
| KBH Brumbies | 3 | -6 | 1991 | +0 | 9 | ||
| Round 0.2 | Men's Premier League | Mentone | 0 | -12 | 1927 | +0 | 10 |
| MCC | 4 | +12 | 2190 | +0 | 1 | ||
| Round 0.19 | Men's Premier League | Camberwell | 1 | -2 | 2098 | +0 | 3 |
| Waverley | 1 | +2 | 2064 | +0 | 5 | ||
| Round 0.19 | Men's Premier League | Doncaster | 7 | +21 | 2107 | +1 | 3 |
| Mentone | 0 | -21 | 1939 | +0 | 11 | ||
| Round 0.19 | Men's Premier League | Essendon | 2 | -12 | 1920 | +0 | 12 |
| MCC | 7 | +12 | 2178 | +0 | 1 | ||
| Round 0.19 | Men's Premier League | Hawthorn | 4 | +24 | 2035 | +0 | 8 |
| Greensborough | 0 | -24 | 1936 | -1 | 11 | ||
| Round 0.19 | Men's Premier League | Southern United | 6 | +21 | 2164 | +0 | 2 |
| Footscray | 2 | -21 | 2037 | -1 | 7 | ||
| Round 0.19 | Men's Premier League | KBH Brumbies | 1 | -11 | 1997 | +0 | 9 |
| Altona | 2 | +11 | 2049 | +0 | 6 | ||
Played schedule and next 5-game run home, ranked hardest to easiest
| Pos | Team | Division | Games in hand | SoS (Played) | Avg Opponent Elo (Played) | SoS (Run Home) | Avg Opponent Elo (Run Home) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Doncaster | Premier League | 5 | 34.5% opponent win rate | 2010 | 53.7% opponent win rate | 2138 |
| 2 | Essendon | Premier League | 4 | 42.5% opponent win rate | 2050 | 49.5% opponent win rate | 2119 |
| 3 | Hawthorn | Premier League | 5 | 40.8% opponent win rate | 2033 | 44.3% opponent win rate | 2089 |
| 4 | Greensborough | Premier League | 4 | 41.5% opponent win rate | 2040 | 40.2% opponent win rate | 2062 |
| 5 | Mentone | Premier League | 5 | 47.8% opponent win rate | 2061 | 36.9% opponent win rate | 2055 |
| 6 | Camberwell | Premier League | 5 | 38.3% opponent win rate | 2039 | 41.0% opponent win rate | 2048 |
| 7 | MCC | Premier League | 5 | 37.8% opponent win rate | 2035 | 42.6% opponent win rate | 2044 |
| 8 | Footscray | Premier League | 5 | 42.5% opponent win rate | 2045 | 45.4% opponent win rate | 2041 |
| 9 | Waverley | Premier League | 4 | 41.4% opponent win rate | 2037 | 46.4% opponent win rate | 2028 |
| 10 | KBH Brumbies | Premier League | 5 | 42.1% opponent win rate | 2058 | 39.8% opponent win rate | 2012 |
| 11 | Southern United | Premier League | 5 | 40.7% opponent win rate | 2041 | 39.8% opponent win rate | 2012 |
| 12 | Altona | Premier League | 4 | 46.0% opponent win rate | 2062 | 25.6% opponent win rate | 1916 |
Opponent win rate is the displayed measure. SoS (Played) uses pre-game opponent and division-average Elo snapshots. SoS (Run Home) covers the next 5 games, uses current Elo and applies small-sample shrinkage toward neutral with k=5. Division averages are recalculated with each weekly ratings update. Pos ranks Run Home difficulty within the selected division.
Why this game?
It received the highest Game to Watch score among the upcoming Vic League 1 fixtures (31%). The model combines ladder impact (36%), shared race stakes (0%), and expected match closeness (63%). Current stakes: Geelong: 1pt above top-two bye; Old Xaverians: 1pt clear in title race.
Previous encounters · 15
| Season | Round | Venue | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 9 | Away | Old Xaverians | 1–1 | Geelong |
| 2024 | Finals 3 | Neutral | Old Xaverians | 1–2 | Geelong |
| 2024 | 18 | Away | Old Xaverians | 3–0 | Geelong |
| 2024 | 7 | Home | Geelong | 7–0 | Old Xaverians |
| 2021 | 5 | Away | Old Xaverians | 1–4 | Geelong |
| 2019 | Finals 2 | Neutral | Geelong | 3–1 | Old Xaverians |
| 2019 | 16 | Home | Geelong | 2–2 | Old Xaverians |
| 2019 | 7 | Away | Old Xaverians | 2–3 | Geelong |
| 2018 | 16 | Neutral | Old Xaverians | 3–1 | Geelong |
| 2018 | 7 | Neutral | Geelong | 1–5 | Old Xaverians |
| 2016 | 20 | Home | Geelong | 5–3 | Old Xaverians |
| 2016 | 7 | Away | Old Xaverians | 2–1 | Geelong |
| 2015 | 5 | Away | Old Xaverians | 3–3 | Geelong |
| 2014 | 13 | Away | Old Xaverians | 1–5 | Geelong |
| 2014 | 3 | Home | Geelong | 6–2 | Old Xaverians |
Upcoming matches, winning expectancies, and estimates of Elo points exchanged
| Round | Match | Division | Current | Three-way outcome probability | Points Exchanged | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rank | Rating | Team win | Draw | Draw | Win × 1 | Win × 2 | Win × 3 | Win × 4 | Win × 5 | |||
| Round 14.1 | Geelong | Vic League 1 | 12 | 1751 | 58% | 13% | -5 | +12 | +17 | +21 | +25 | +30 |
| Old Xaverians | 14 | 1671 | 29% | +5 | +23 | +31 | +38 | +46 | +54 | |||
| Round 14.1 | TEM | Vic League 1 | 17 | 1605 | 77% | 7% | -11 | +7 | +9 | +11 | +14 | +16 |
| Casey | 22 | 1380 | 16% | +11 | +28 | +38 | +48 | +58 | +68 | |||
| Round 14.1 | Yarra | Vic League 1 | 16 | 1614 | 52% | 17% | -4 | +14 | +19 | +24 | +28 | +33 |
| MUHC | 18 | 1565 | 31% | +4 | +21 | +29 | +36 | +43 | +51 | |||
| Round 15 | ECHO | Vic League 1 | 23 | 1296 | 19% | 7% | +10 | +27 | +37 | +46 | +56 | +66 |
| Craigieburn | 19 | 1541 | 75% | -10 | +8 | +10 | +13 | +16 | +18 | |||
| Round 15 | Geelong | Vic League 1 | 12 | 1751 | 83% | 7% | -13 | +5 | +6 | +8 | +10 | +11 |
| North West Lightning | 20 | 1452 | 10% | +13 | +30 | +41 | +52 | +62 | +73 | |||
| Round 15 | MUHC | Vic League 1 | 18 | 1565 | 73% | 6% | -9 | +8 | +11 | +14 | +17 | +20 |
| WestVic | 21 | 1392 | 21% | +9 | +27 | +36 | +45 | +54 | +64 | |||
| Round 15 | Old Xaverians | Vic League 1 | 14 | 1671 | 83% | 7% | -13 | +5 | +7 | +8 | +10 | +12 |
| Casey | 22 | 1380 | 10% | +13 | +30 | +41 | +51 | +62 | +72 | |||
| Round 15 | PEGS | Vic League 1 | 15 | 1652 | 52% | 17% | -4 | +14 | +19 | +24 | +29 | +33 |
| TEM | 17 | 1605 | 31% | +4 | +21 | +28 | +36 | +43 | +51 | |||
| Round 15 | Yarra | Vic League 1 | 16 | 1614 | 84% | 7% | -13 | +4 | +6 | +7 | +9 | +10 |
| Monash University | 24 | 1294 | 9% | +13 | +31 | +42 | +52 | +63 | +74 | |||
| Round 16 | Casey | Vic League 1 | 22 | 1380 | 22% | 13% | +8 | +25 | +34 | +43 | +51 | +60 |
| MUHC | 18 | 1565 | 65% | -8 | +10 | +13 | +17 | +20 | +24 | |||
| Round 16 | Craigieburn | Vic League 1 | 19 | 1541 | 29% | 13% | +5 | +23 | +31 | +38 | +46 | +54 |
| Old Xaverians | 14 | 1671 | 58% | -5 | +12 | +17 | +21 | +25 | +30 | |||
| Round 16 | Monash University | Vic League 1 | 24 | 1294 | 31% | 17% | +4 | +21 | +29 | +36 | +43 | +51 |
| WestVic | 21 | 1392 | 52% | -4 | +14 | +19 | +24 | +28 | +33 | |||
| Round 16 | North West Lightning | Vic League 1 | 20 | 1452 | 24% | 6% | +8 | +26 | +35 | +44 | +53 | +62 |
| PEGS | 15 | 1652 | 70% | -8 | +9 | +13 | +16 | +19 | +22 | |||
| Round 16 | TEM | Vic League 1 | 17 | 1605 | 84% | 7% | -13 | +4 | +6 | +8 | +9 | +11 |
| ECHO | 23 | 1296 | 9% | +13 | +31 | +41 | +52 | +63 | +73 | |||
| Round 16 | Yarra | Vic League 1 | 16 | 1614 | 28% | 13% | +5 | +23 | +31 | +39 | +47 | +55 |
| Geelong | 12 | 1751 | 59% | -5 | +12 | +16 | +20 | +25 | +29 | |||
| Round 17 | ECHO | Vic League 1 | 23 | 1296 | 25% | 14% | +6 | +24 | +32 | +40 | +49 | +57 |
| North West Lightning | 20 | 1452 | 61% | -6 | +11 | +15 | +19 | +23 | +27 | |||
| Round 17 | Geelong | Vic League 1 | 12 | 1751 | 91% | 7% | -15 | +2 | +3 | +3 | +4 | +5 |
| Monash University | 24 | 1294 | 2% | +15 | +33 | +44 | +56 | +68 | +79 | |||
| Round 17 | MUHC | Vic League 1 | 18 | 1565 | 49% | 16% | -2 | +15 | +20 | +26 | +31 | +36 |
| Craigieburn | 19 | 1541 | 35% | +2 | +20 | +27 | +34 | +41 | +48 | |||
| Round 17 | Old Xaverians | Vic League 1 | 14 | 1671 | 56% | 13% | -4 | +13 | +18 | +22 | +27 | +31 |
| TEM | 17 | 1605 | 31% | +4 | +22 | +30 | +37 | +45 | +53 | |||
| Round 17 | PEGS | Vic League 1 | 15 | 1652 | 50% | 17% | -3 | +14 | +19 | +24 | +29 | +34 |
| Yarra | 16 | 1614 | 32% | +3 | +21 | +28 | +35 | +42 | +50 | |||
| Round 17 | WestVic | Vic League 1 | 21 | 1392 | 47% | 16% | -2 | +16 | +21 | +27 | +32 | +38 |
| Casey | 22 | 1380 | 37% | +2 | +19 | +26 | +33 | +40 | +46 | |||
| Round 18 | Craigieburn | Vic League 1 | 19 | 1541 | 67% | 13% | -8 | +9 | +13 | +16 | +19 | +23 |
| WestVic | 21 | 1392 | 20% | +8 | +26 | +35 | +44 | +52 | +61 | |||
| Round 18 | Geelong | Vic League 1 | 12 | 1751 | 61% | 13% | -6 | +12 | +16 | +20 | +24 | +28 |
| PEGS | 15 | 1652 | 26% | +6 | +23 | +32 | +40 | +48 | +56 | |||
| Round 18 | Monash University | Vic League 1 | 24 | 1294 | 33% | 17% | +3 | +21 | +28 | +35 | +42 | +49 |
| Casey | 22 | 1380 | 50% | -3 | +14 | +20 | +25 | +30 | +35 | |||
| Round 18 | North West Lightning | Vic League 1 | 20 | 1452 | 21% | 6% | +9 | +26 | +36 | +45 | +54 | +63 |
| Old Xaverians | 14 | 1671 | 72% | -9 | +9 | +12 | +15 | +18 | +21 | |||
| Round 18 | TEM | Vic League 1 | 17 | 1605 | 51% | 17% | -3 | +14 | +19 | +24 | +29 | +34 |
| MUHC | 18 | 1565 | 32% | +3 | +21 | +28 | +35 | +43 | +50 | |||
| Round 18 | Yarra | Vic League 1 | 16 | 1614 | 84% | 7% | -13 | +4 | +6 | +7 | +9 | +10 |
| ECHO | 23 | 1296 | 9% | +13 | +31 | +41 | +52 | +63 | +74 | |||
Current-season results
| Round | Division | Match | Rating | Rank | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Club | Score | Change | New | Change | Current | ||
| Round 14 | Men's Vic League 1 | TEM | 1 | -19 | 1605 | -1 | 17 |
| Geelong | 5 | +19 | 1751 | +1 | 12 | ||
| Round 14 | Men's Vic League 1 | Casey | 6 | +20 | 1380 | +0 | 21 |
| ECHO | 3 | -20 | 1296 | -1 | 24 | ||
| Round 14 | Men's Vic League 1 | Craigieburn | 3 | -16 | 1541 | +0 | 19 |
| PEGS | 5 | +16 | 1652 | +0 | 15 | ||
| Round 14 | Men's Vic League 1 | Monash University | 0 | -6 | 1294 | -1 | 24 |
| MUHC | 2 | +6 | 1565 | +0 | 18 | ||
| Round 14 | Men's Vic League 1 | North West Lightning | 2 | +7 | 1452 | +0 | 20 |
| Yarra | 2 | -7 | 1614 | +0 | 16 | ||
| Round 14 | Men's Vic League 1 | WestVic | 3 | +41 | 1392 | +1 | 21 |
| Old Xaverians | 1 | -41 | 1671 | +0 | 14 | ||
| Round 13.1 | Men's Vic League 1 | Craigieburn | 7 | +10 | 1557 | +0 | 19 |
| Monash University | 3 | -10 | 1300 | +0 | 24 | ||
| Round 13.1 | Men's Vic League 1 | North West Lightning | 1 | +8 | 1445 | +0 | 20 |
| WestVic | 0 | -8 | 1351 | +0 | 22 | ||
| Round 13.1 | Men's Vic League 1 | PEGS | 6 | +7 | 1636 | +0 | 15 |
| ECHO | 0 | -7 | 1316 | +0 | 23 | ||
| Round 13 | Men's Vic League 1 | ECHO | 4 | +14 | 1323 | +1 | 23 |
| WestVic | 3 | -14 | 1359 | -1 | 22 | ||
| Round 13 | Men's Vic League 1 | Old Xaverians | 5 | +16 | 1712 | +0 | 14 |
| MUHC | 0 | -16 | 1559 | +0 | 18 | ||
| Round 13 | Men's Vic League 1 | Geelong | 6 | +11 | 1732 | +0 | 13 |
| Craigieburn | 3 | -11 | 1547 | +0 | 19 | ||
| Round 13 | Men's Vic League 1 | North West Lightning | 3 | +12 | 1437 | +0 | 20 |
| Monash University | 1 | -12 | 1310 | +0 | 24 | ||
| Round 13 | Men's Vic League 1 | PEGS | 6 | +7 | 1629 | +0 | 16 |
| Casey | 3 | -7 | 1360 | +0 | 21 | ||
| Round 13 | Men's Vic League 1 | Yarra | 1 | -13 | 1621 | -2 | 17 |
| TEM | 2 | +13 | 1624 | +1 | 16 | ||
| Round 12.1 | Men's Vic League 1 | PEGS | 3 | +6 | 1622 | +0 | 16 |
| Monash University | 0 | -6 | 1322 | +0 | 23 | ||
| Round 12 | Men's Vic League 1 | TEM | 3 | +6 | 1611 | +0 | 16 |
| North West Lightning | 2 | -6 | 1425 | +0 | 20 | ||
| Round 12 | Men's Vic League 1 | MUHC | 6 | +10 | 1575 | +1 | 18 |
| ECHO | 1 | -10 | 1309 | -1 | 24 | ||
| Round 12 | Men's Vic League 1 | Casey | 0 | -9 | 1367 | +0 | 22 |
| Geelong | 8 | +9 | 1721 | +0 | 13 | ||
| Round 12 | Men's Vic League 1 | Craigieburn | 2 | -11 | 1558 | +0 | 19 |
| Yarra | 3 | +11 | 1634 | +0 | 15 | ||
| Round 12 | Men's Vic League 1 | Monash University | 2 | +14 | 1328 | +0 | 23 |
| Old Xaverians | 2 | -14 | 1696 | +0 | 14 | ||
| Round 12 | Men's Vic League 1 | WestVic | 2 | -14 | 1373 | +0 | 21 |
| PEGS | 8 | +14 | 1616 | +1 | 16 | ||
| Round 11 | Men's Vic League 1 | Old Xaverians | 9 | +4 | 1710 | +0 | 13 |
| ECHO | 1 | -4 | 1319 | -1 | 24 | ||
| Round 11 | Men's Vic League 1 | MUHC | 0 | -13 | 1565 | +0 | 18 |
| PEGS | 1 | +13 | 1602 | +1 | 16 | ||
| Round 11 | Men's Vic League 1 | Casey | 0 | -11 | 1376 | +0 | 22 |
| Yarra | 3 | +11 | 1623 | +0 | 15 | ||
| Round 11 | Men's Vic League 1 | Craigieburn | 7 | +23 | 1569 | +1 | 18 |
| North West Lightning | 1 | -23 | 1431 | +0 | 20 | ||
| Round 11 | Men's Vic League 1 | Monash University | 2 | -9 | 1314 | -1 | 24 |
| TEM | 6 | +9 | 1605 | +1 | 16 | ||
| Round 11 | Men's Vic League 1 | WestVic | 0 | -8 | 1387 | +0 | 21 |
| Geelong | 5 | +8 | 1712 | +1 | 13 | ||
| Round 10 | Men's Vic League 1 | TEM | 2 | -16 | 1596 | -1 | 16 |
| Craigieburn | 3 | +16 | 1546 | +0 | 19 | ||
| Round 10 | Men's Vic League 1 | ECHO | 3 | +21 | 1323 | +1 | 23 |
| Monash University | 1 | -21 | 1323 | -1 | 24 | ||
| Round 10 | Men's Vic League 1 | Geelong | 2 | +7 | 1704 | +0 | 13 |
| MUHC | 1 | -7 | 1578 | +0 | 18 | ||
| Round 10 | Men's Vic League 1 | North West Lightning | 6 | +25 | 1454 | +0 | 20 |
| Casey | 2 | -25 | 1387 | -1 | 22 | ||
| Round 10 | Men's Vic League 1 | PEGS | 1 | -16 | 1589 | -2 | 17 |
| Old Xaverians | 3 | +16 | 1706 | +1 | 13 | ||
| Round 10 | Men's Vic League 1 | Yarra | 8 | +16 | 1612 | +1 | 15 |
| WestVic | 2 | -16 | 1395 | +0 | 21 | ||
| Round 9 | Men's Vic League 1 | ECHO | 4 | +25 | 1302 | +0 | 24 |
| PEGS | 3 | -25 | 1605 | +0 | 15 | ||
| Round 9 | Men's Vic League 1 | Old Xaverians | 1 | -2 | 1690 | +0 | 14 |
| Geelong | 1 | +2 | 1697 | +0 | 13 | ||
| Round 9 | Men's Vic League 1 | MUHC | 1 | -15 | 1585 | -1 | 18 |
| Yarra | 2 | +15 | 1596 | +1 | 17 | ||
| Round 9 | Men's Vic League 1 | Casey | 1 | -7 | 1412 | +0 | 21 |
| TEM | 2 | +7 | 1612 | +1 | 15 | ||
| Round 9 | Men's Vic League 1 | Monash University | 2 | -6 | 1344 | +0 | 23 |
| Craigieburn | 3 | +6 | 1530 | +0 | 19 | ||
| Round 9 | Men's Vic League 1 | WestVic | 3 | +0 | 1411 | +0 | 22 |
| North West Lightning | 3 | +0 | 1429 | +0 | 20 | ||
| Round 8.1 | Men's Vic League 1 | TEM | 7 | +13 | 1605 | +0 | 17 |
| Monash University | 0 | -13 | 1350 | +0 | 23 | ||
| Round 8.1 | Men's Vic League 1 | ECHO | 1 | -5 | 1277 | +0 | 24 |
| Old Xaverians | 5 | +5 | 1692 | +1 | 13 | ||
| Round 8.1 | Men's Vic League 1 | Geelong | 3 | +6 | 1695 | +1 | 13 |
| WestVic | 1 | -6 | 1411 | +0 | 22 | ||
| Round 8.1 | Men's Vic League 1 | North West Lightning | 5 | +4 | 1429 | +0 | 21 |
| Craigieburn | 5 | -4 | 1524 | +0 | 19 | ||
| Round 8.1 | Men's Vic League 1 | PEGS | 3 | +25 | 1630 | +1 | 15 |
| MUHC | 0 | -25 | 1600 | -2 | 17 | ||
| Round 8.1 | Men's Vic League 1 | Yarra | 4 | +17 | 1581 | +0 | 18 |
| Casey | 0 | -17 | 1419 | -1 | 21 | ||
| Round 8 | Men's Vic League 1 | TEM | 6 | +16 | 1592 | +0 | 17 |
| WestVic | 2 | -16 | 1417 | -1 | 21 | ||
| Round 8 | Men's Vic League 1 | Craigieburn | 1 | -30 | 1528 | -1 | 19 |
| Casey | 3 | +30 | 1436 | +2 | 20 | ||
| Round 8 | Men's Vic League 1 | Geelong | 13 | +5 | 1689 | +0 | 14 |
| ECHO | 0 | -5 | 1282 | +0 | 24 | ||
| Round 8 | Men's Vic League 1 | North West Lightning | 3 | -6 | 1425 | +0 | 21 |
| MUHC | 4 | +6 | 1625 | +0 | 15 | ||
| Round 8 | Men's Vic League 1 | Yarra | 3 | +6 | 1564 | +0 | 18 |
| Old Xaverians | 3 | -6 | 1687 | -1 | 14 | ||
| Round 7 | Men's Vic League 1 | ECHO | 1 | -5 | 1287 | +0 | 24 |
| Yarra | 2 | +5 | 1558 | +0 | 18 | ||
| Round 7 | Men's Vic League 1 | Old Xaverians | 3 | +5 | 1693 | +0 | 13 |
| North West Lightning | 1 | -5 | 1431 | +0 | 21 | ||
| Round 7 | Men's Vic League 1 | MUHC | 2 | -17 | 1619 | +0 | 15 |
| TEM | 3 | +17 | 1576 | +0 | 17 | ||
| Round 7 | Men's Vic League 1 | Casey | 6 | +25 | 1406 | +1 | 22 |
| Monash University | 2 | -25 | 1363 | -1 | 23 | ||
| Round 7 | Men's Vic League 1 | PEGS | 2 | +3 | 1605 | +0 | 16 |
| Geelong | 2 | -3 | 1684 | +0 | 14 | ||
| Round 7 | Men's Vic League 1 | WestVic | 2 | -23 | 1433 | +0 | 20 |
| Craigieburn | 6 | +23 | 1558 | +1 | 18 | ||
| Round 6 | Men's Vic League 1 | TEM | 2 | -8 | 1559 | -1 | 18 |
| Old Xaverians | 3 | +8 | 1688 | +0 | 13 | ||
| Round 6 | Men's Vic League 1 | Casey | 2 | -12 | 1381 | +0 | 23 |
| WestVic | 3 | +12 | 1456 | +0 | 20 | ||
| Round 6 | Men's Vic League 1 | Craigieburn | 3 | +18 | 1535 | +0 | 19 |
| MUHC | 2 | -18 | 1636 | +0 | 15 | ||
| Round 6 | Men's Vic League 1 | Monash University | 0 | -10 | 1388 | +0 | 22 |
| Geelong | 5 | +10 | 1687 | +0 | 14 | ||
| Round 6 | Men's Vic League 1 | North West Lightning | 4 | +7 | 1436 | +0 | 21 |
| ECHO | 3 | -7 | 1292 | +0 | 24 | ||
| Round 6 | Men's Vic League 1 | Yarra | 2 | -11 | 1553 | -1 | 18 |
| PEGS | 3 | +11 | 1602 | +0 | 16 | ||
| Round 5 | Men's Vic League 1 | ECHO | 2 | -8 | 1299 | +0 | 24 |
| TEM | 4 | +8 | 1567 | +0 | 17 | ||
| Round 5 | Men's Vic League 1 | Old Xaverians | 5 | +11 | 1680 | +0 | 14 |
| Craigieburn | 2 | -11 | 1517 | +0 | 19 | ||
| Round 5 | Men's Vic League 1 | MUHC | 3 | +3 | 1654 | +0 | 15 |
| Casey | 2 | -3 | 1393 | +0 | 23 | ||
| Round 5 | Men's Vic League 1 | Geelong | 0 | -31 | 1677 | -1 | 14 |
| Yarra | 2 | +31 | 1564 | +0 | 18 | ||
| Round 5 | Men's Vic League 1 | PEGS | 7 | +19 | 1591 | +0 | 16 |
| North West Lightning | 0 | -19 | 1429 | +0 | 20 | ||
| Round 5 | Men's Vic League 1 | WestVic | 4 | +18 | 1444 | +1 | 20 |
| Monash University | 2 | -18 | 1398 | +0 | 22 | ||
| Round 4 | Men's Vic League 1 | TEM | 1 | -33 | 1559 | -1 | 17 |
| PEGS | 5 | +33 | 1572 | +1 | 16 | ||
| Round 4 | Men's Vic League 1 | Casey | 2 | -9 | 1396 | +0 | 23 |
| Old Xaverians | 4 | +9 | 1669 | +0 | 14 | ||
| Round 4 | Men's Vic League 1 | Craigieburn | 8 | +15 | 1528 | +1 | 18 |
| ECHO | 2 | -15 | 1307 | +0 | 24 | ||
| Round 4 | Men's Vic League 1 | Monash University | 1 | -14 | 1416 | +0 | 22 |
| Yarra | 3 | +14 | 1533 | +1 | 18 | ||
| Round 4 | Men's Vic League 1 | North West Lightning | 2 | -9 | 1448 | +0 | 20 |
| Geelong | 5 | +9 | 1708 | +0 | 13 | ||
| Round 4 | Men's Vic League 1 | WestVic | 1 | -14 | 1426 | +0 | 21 |
| MUHC | 5 | +14 | 1651 | +0 | 15 | ||
| Round 3 | Men's Vic League 1 | ECHO | 0 | +2 | 1322 | +0 | 24 |
| Casey | 0 | -2 | 1405 | +0 | 23 | ||
| Round 3 | Men's Vic League 1 | Old Xaverians | 5 | +10 | 1660 | +0 | 14 |
| WestVic | 1 | -10 | 1440 | +0 | 21 | ||
| Round 3 | Men's Vic League 1 | MUHC | 1 | -12 | 1637 | +0 | 15 |
| Monash University | 1 | +12 | 1430 | +0 | 22 | ||
| Round 3 | Men's Vic League 1 | Yarra | 3 | +11 | 1519 | +0 | 18 |
| North West Lightning | 2 | -11 | 1457 | +0 | 20 | ||
| Round 3 | Men's Vic League 1 | Geelong | 4 | +23 | 1699 | +0 | 13 |
| TEM | 0 | -23 | 1592 | +0 | 16 | ||
| Round 3 | Men's Vic League 1 | PEGS | 1 | -34 | 1539 | +0 | 17 |
| Craigieburn | 4 | +34 | 1513 | +0 | 19 | ||
| Round 2 | Men's Vic League 1 | TEM | 2 | -18 | 1615 | +0 | 16 |
| Yarra | 3 | +18 | 1508 | +0 | 18 | ||
| Round 2 | Men's Vic League 1 | MUHC | 2 | -16 | 1649 | -1 | 15 |
| Old Xaverians | 3 | +16 | 1650 | +1 | 14 | ||
| Round 2 | Men's Vic League 1 | Casey | 0 | -15 | 1407 | -1 | 23 |
| PEGS | 2 | +15 | 1573 | +0 | 17 | ||
| Round 2 | Men's Vic League 1 | Craigieburn | 4 | +10 | 1479 | +1 | 19 |
| Geelong | 4 | -10 | 1676 | +0 | 13 | ||
| Round 2 | Men's Vic League 1 | Monash University | 1 | +3 | 1418 | +0 | 22 |
| North West Lightning | 1 | -3 | 1468 | +0 | 20 | ||
| Round 2 | Men's Vic League 1 | WestVic | 5 | +23 | 1450 | +0 | 21 |
| ECHO | 0 | -23 | 1320 | +0 | 24 | ||
| Round 1 | Men's Vic League 1 | ECHO | 3 | -6 | 1343 | +0 | 24 |
| MUHC | 5 | +6 | 1665 | +0 | 15 | ||
| Round 1 | Men's Vic League 1 | Old Xaverians | 2 | +7 | 1634 | +0 | 16 |
| Monash University | 0 | -7 | 1415 | +0 | 23 | ||
| Round 1 | Men's Vic League 1 | Yarra | 1 | -24 | 1490 | +0 | 18 |
| Craigieburn | 3 | +24 | 1469 | +1 | 19 | ||
| Round 1 | Men's Vic League 1 | Geelong | 5 | +8 | 1686 | +0 | 13 |
| Casey | 2 | -8 | 1422 | -1 | 22 | ||
| Round 1 | Men's Vic League 1 | North West Lightning | 6 | +44 | 1471 | +2 | 19 |
| TEM | 3 | -44 | 1633 | -2 | 16 | ||
| Round 1 | Men's Vic League 1 | PEGS | 8 | +22 | 1558 | +0 | 17 |
| WestVic | 1 | -22 | 1427 | +0 | 21 | ||
| Round 0.2 | Men's Vic League 1 | Casey | 5 | +30 | 1430 | +1 | 22 |
| Craigieburn | 1 | -30 | 1445 | -1 | 20 | ||
| Round 0.2 | Men's Vic League 1 | ECHO | 1 | -11 | 1349 | +0 | 24 |
| Geelong | 8 | +11 | 1678 | +1 | 13 | ||
| Round 0.2 | Men's Vic League 1 | Old Xaverians | 1 | +7 | 1627 | +0 | 16 |
| Yarra | 0 | -7 | 1514 | +0 | 18 | ||
| Round 0.2 | Men's Vic League 1 | MUHC | 3 | +6 | 1659 | +0 | 15 |
| North West Lightning | 1 | -6 | 1427 | -1 | 22 | ||
| Round 0.2 | Men's Vic League 1 | Monash University | 1 | +18 | 1422 | +0 | 23 |
| PEGS | 0 | -18 | 1536 | +0 | 17 | ||
| Round 0.2 | Men's Vic League 1 | WestVic | 1 | -9 | 1449 | +0 | 19 |
| TEM | 3 | +9 | 1677 | +0 | 14 | ||
| Round 0.19 | Men's Vic League 1 | Casey | 2 | +15 | 1400 | +0 | 22 |
| North West Lightning | 1 | -15 | 1433 | +0 | 21 | ||
| Round 0.19 | Men's Vic League 1 | Craigieburn | 3 | +10 | 1475 | +1 | 19 |
| TEM | 3 | -10 | 1668 | +0 | 14 | ||
| Round 0.19 | Men's Vic League 1 | Monash University | 5 | +25 | 1404 | +2 | 22 |
| ECHO | 2 | -25 | 1360 | -1 | 24 | ||
| Round 0.19 | Men's Vic League 1 | MUHC | 2 | +11 | 1653 | +0 | 15 |
| Geelong | 1 | -11 | 1667 | -1 | 14 | ||
| Round 0.19 | Men's Vic League 1 | Old Xaverians | 1 | -4 | 1620 | +0 | 16 |
| PEGS | 1 | +4 | 1554 | +0 | 17 | ||
| Round 0.19 | Men's Vic League 1 | WestVic | 2 | -11 | 1458 | +0 | 20 |
| Yarra | 3 | +11 | 1521 | +0 | 18 | ||
Played schedule and next 5-game run home, ranked hardest to easiest
| Pos | Team | Division | Games in hand | SoS (Played) | Avg Opponent Elo (Played) | SoS (Run Home) | Avg Opponent Elo (Run Home) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | PEGS | Vic League 1 | 4 | 39.5% opponent win rate | 1489 | 54.0% opponent win rate | 1606 |
| 2 | North West Lightning | Vic League 1 | 4 | 43.3% opponent win rate | 1518 | 56.1% opponent win rate | 1592 |
| 3 | ECHO | Vic League 1 | 4 | 46.2% opponent win rate | 1532 | 48.9% opponent win rate | 1553 |
| 4 | Old Xaverians | Vic League 1 | 5 | 40.4% opponent win rate | 1485 | 46.1% opponent win rate | 1546 |
| 5 | Geelong | Vic League 1 | 5 | 39.9% opponent win rate | 1496 | 48.2% opponent win rate | 1537 |
| 6 | Monash University | Vic League 1 | 4 | 47.2% opponent win rate | 1531 | 46.7% opponent win rate | 1534 |
| 7 | TEM | Vic League 1 | 5 | 42.5% opponent win rate | 1503 | 46.1% opponent win rate | 1513 |
| 8 | Yarra | Vic League 1 | 5 | 42.2% opponent win rate | 1518 | 42.4% opponent win rate | 1512 |
| 9 | MUHC | Vic League 1 | 5 | 43.9% opponent win rate | 1508 | 43.9% opponent win rate | 1506 |
| 10 | Casey | Vic League 1 | 5 | 46.9% opponent win rate | 1532 | 40.8% opponent win rate | 1505 |
| 11 | Craigieburn | Vic League 1 | 4 | 44.6% opponent win rate | 1527 | 39.1% opponent win rate | 1481 |
| 12 | WestVic | Vic League 1 | 4 | 48.7% opponent win rate | 1541 | 34.4% opponent win rate | 1445 |
Opponent win rate is the displayed measure. SoS (Played) uses pre-game opponent and division-average Elo snapshots. SoS (Run Home) covers the next 5 games, uses current Elo and applies small-sample shrinkage toward neutral with k=5. Division averages are recalculated with each weekly ratings update. Pos ranks Run Home difficulty within the selected division.
Why this game?
It received the highest Game to Watch score among the upcoming Vic League 2 fixtures (42%). The model combines ladder impact (22%), shared race stakes (42%), and expected match closeness (93%). Current stakes: Werribee: 5pt below finals cutoff; Bayside/Powerhouse: 3pt above finals cutoff.
Previous encounters · 4
| Season | Round | Venue | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 6 | Away | Bayside/Powerhouse | 1–0 | Werribee |
| 2025 | Finals 1 | Home | Werribee | 3–1 | Bayside/Powerhouse |
| 2025 | 12 | Away | Bayside/Powerhouse | 4–1 | Werribee |
| 2025 | 3 | Home | Werribee | 4–1 | Bayside/Powerhouse |
Upcoming matches, winning expectancies, and estimates of Elo points exchanged
| Round | Match | Division | Current | Three-way outcome probability | Points Exchanged | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rank | Rating | Team win | Draw | Draw | Win × 1 | Win × 2 | Win × 3 | Win × 4 | Win × 5 | |||
| Round 15 | Brunswick | Vic League 2 | 25 | 1196 | 67% | 13% | -8 | +9 | +13 | +16 | +19 | +23 |
| Frankston | 30 | 1048 | 21% | +8 | +26 | +35 | +43 | +52 | +61 | |||
| Round 15 | Knox | Vic League 2 | 33 | 1029 | 31% | 13% | +4 | +22 | +29 | +37 | +44 | +52 |
| St Bede's | 28 | 1139 | 55% | -4 | +13 | +18 | +23 | +27 | +32 | |||
| Round 15 | MHSOB | Vic League 2 | 36 | 952 | 58% | 13% | -5 | +12 | +17 | +21 | +25 | +30 |
| Caroline Springs | 37 | 872 | 29% | +5 | +23 | +31 | +38 | +46 | +54 | |||
| Round 15 | Werribee | Vic League 2 | 27 | 1143 | 42% | 14% | +0 | +18 | +24 | +30 | +36 | +43 |
| Bayside/Powerhouse | 26 | 1173 | 44% | +0 | +17 | +23 | +29 | +35 | +41 | |||
| Round 16 | Bayside/Powerhouse | Vic League 2 | 26 | 1173 | 43% | 14% | +0 | +17 | +23 | +30 | +36 | +42 |
| Brunswick | 25 | 1196 | 43% | +0 | +18 | +24 | +30 | +36 | +42 | |||
| Round 16 | Caroline Springs | Vic League 2 | 37 | 872 | 16% | 7% | +11 | +28 | +38 | +48 | +57 | +67 |
| St Bede's | 28 | 1139 | 77% | -11 | +7 | +9 | +12 | +14 | +17 | |||
| Round 16 | Frankston | Vic League 2 | 30 | 1048 | 48% | 16% | -2 | +15 | +21 | +26 | +31 | +37 |
| Knox | 33 | 1029 | 36% | +2 | +20 | +27 | +33 | +40 | +47 | |||
| Round 16 | GD Warriors | Vic League 2 | 29 | 1129 | 44% | 14% | -1 | +17 | +23 | +29 | +35 | +41 |
| Werribee | 27 | 1143 | 41% | +1 | +18 | +24 | +31 | +37 | +43 | |||
| Round 17 | Brunswick | Vic League 2 | 25 | 1196 | 56% | 13% | -5 | +13 | +18 | +22 | +27 | +31 |
| GD Warriors | 29 | 1129 | 30% | +5 | +22 | +30 | +37 | +45 | +53 | |||
| Round 17 | Knox | Vic League 2 | 33 | 1029 | 27% | 13% | +6 | +23 | +31 | +40 | +48 | +56 |
| Bayside/Powerhouse | 26 | 1173 | 60% | -6 | +12 | +16 | +20 | +24 | +28 | |||
| Round 17 | St Bede's | Vic League 2 | 28 | 1139 | 60% | 13% | -6 | +12 | +16 | +20 | +24 | +28 |
| Frankston | 30 | 1048 | 27% | +6 | +23 | +31 | +39 | +47 | +56 | |||
| Round 17 | Werribee | Vic League 2 | 27 | 1143 | 74% | 7% | -10 | +8 | +11 | +13 | +16 | +19 |
| MHSOB | 36 | 952 | 19% | +10 | +27 | +37 | +46 | +56 | +65 | |||
| Round 18 | Bayside/Powerhouse | Vic League 2 | 26 | 1173 | 50% | 17% | -3 | +15 | +20 | +25 | +30 | +35 |
| St Bede's | 28 | 1139 | 33% | +3 | +20 | +28 | +35 | +42 | +49 | |||
| Round 18 | Frankston | Vic League 2 | 30 | 1048 | 73% | 7% | -9 | +8 | +11 | +14 | +17 | +20 |
| Caroline Springs | 37 | 872 | 20% | +9 | +27 | +36 | +45 | +55 | +64 | |||
| Round 18 | Knox | Vic League 2 | 33 | 1029 | 33% | 13% | +4 | +21 | +29 | +36 | +44 | +51 |
| GD Warriors | 29 | 1129 | 54% | -4 | +14 | +19 | +23 | +28 | +33 | |||
| Round 18 | MHSOB | Vic League 2 | 36 | 952 | 19% | 7% | +10 | +27 | +37 | +46 | +56 | +65 |
| Brunswick | 25 | 1196 | 74% | -10 | +8 | +10 | +13 | +16 | +19 | |||
Current-season results
| Round | Division | Match | Rating | Rank | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Club | Score | Change | New | Change | Current | ||
| Round 14 | Men's Vic League 2 | Caroline Springs | 2 | -7 | 872 | +0 | 37 |
| Knox | 3 | +7 | 1029 | +0 | 31 | ||
| Round 14 | Men's Vic League 2 | Frankston | 1 | +17 | 1048 | +0 | 30 |
| Werribee | 0 | -17 | 1143 | +0 | 27 | ||
| Round 14 | Men's Vic League 2 | GD Warriors | 7 | +14 | 1129 | +0 | 29 |
| MHSOB | 0 | -14 | 952 | +0 | 32 | ||
| Round 14 | Men's Vic League 2 | St Bede's | 1 | +2 | 1139 | +0 | 28 |
| Brunswick | 1 | -2 | 1196 | +0 | 25 | ||
| Round 13 | Men's Vic League 2 | MHSOB | 1 | -5 | 966 | +0 | 32 |
| Bayside/Powerhouse | 2 | +5 | 1173 | +0 | 27 | ||
| Round 13 | Men's Vic League 2 | Brunswick | 3 | +9 | 1198 | +0 | 25 |
| Knox | 1 | -9 | 1022 | +0 | 31 | ||
| Round 13 | Men's Vic League 2 | GD Warriors | 5 | +9 | 1115 | +0 | 29 |
| Caroline Springs | 0 | -9 | 879 | +0 | 37 | ||
| Round 13 | Men's Vic League 2 | Werribee | 2 | -16 | 1160 | -1 | 27 |
| St Bede's | 3 | +16 | 1137 | +0 | 28 | ||
| Round 12 | Men's Vic League 2 | Caroline Springs | 0 | -10 | 888 | +0 | 37 |
| Brunswick | 7 | +10 | 1189 | +0 | 25 | ||
| Round 12 | Men's Vic League 2 | Bayside/Powerhouse | 3 | +15 | 1168 | +1 | 26 |
| GD Warriors | 1 | -15 | 1106 | -1 | 29 | ||
| Round 12 | Men's Vic League 2 | Knox | 1 | -8 | 1031 | +0 | 31 |
| Werribee | 2 | +8 | 1176 | +1 | 26 | ||
| Round 12 | Men's Vic League 2 | Frankston | 3 | -16 | 1031 | +0 | 30 |
| MHSOB | 4 | +16 | 971 | +0 | 32 | ||
| Round 11 | Men's Vic League 2 | Bayside/Powerhouse | 2 | -26 | 1153 | -2 | 27 |
| Caroline Springs | 3 | +26 | 898 | +0 | 37 | ||
| Round 11 | Men's Vic League 2 | MHSOB | 0 | -7 | 955 | +0 | 32 |
| St Bede's | 1 | +7 | 1121 | +0 | 28 | ||
| Round 11 | Men's Vic League 2 | GD Warriors | 3 | +8 | 1121 | +1 | 28 |
| Frankston | 2 | -8 | 1047 | +0 | 30 | ||
| Round 11 | Men's Vic League 2 | Werribee | 2 | -3 | 1168 | +0 | 26 |
| Brunswick | 2 | +3 | 1179 | +0 | 25 | ||
| Round 10 | Men's Vic League 2 | Caroline Springs | 2 | -9 | 872 | +0 | 37 |
| Werribee | 6 | +9 | 1171 | +0 | 27 | ||
| Round 10 | Men's Vic League 2 | Knox | 8 | +32 | 1039 | +1 | 30 |
| MHSOB | 2 | -32 | 962 | +0 | 32 | ||
| Round 10 | Men's Vic League 2 | Frankston | 3 | +31 | 1055 | +1 | 30 |
| Bayside/Powerhouse | 1 | -31 | 1179 | +0 | 25 | ||
| Round 10 | Men's Vic League 2 | St Bede's | 3 | +12 | 1114 | +1 | 28 |
| GD Warriors | 2 | -12 | 1113 | -1 | 29 | ||
| Round 9 | Men's Vic League 2 | Caroline Springs | 1 | -22 | 881 | -1 | 37 |
| Frankston | 5 | +22 | 1024 | +2 | 30 | ||
| Round 9 | Men's Vic League 2 | Brunswick | 11 | +16 | 1176 | +1 | 26 |
| MHSOB | 0 | -16 | 994 | +0 | 32 | ||
| Round 9 | Men's Vic League 2 | GD Warriors | 1 | +6 | 1125 | +0 | 28 |
| Knox | 0 | -6 | 1007 | +0 | 31 | ||
| Round 9 | Men's Vic League 2 | St Bede's | 1 | -10 | 1102 | +0 | 29 |
| Bayside/Powerhouse | 2 | +10 | 1210 | +0 | 25 | ||
| Round 8 | Men's Vic League 2 | Bayside/Powerhouse | 4 | +8 | 1200 | +1 | 25 |
| Knox | 2 | -8 | 1013 | +0 | 32 | ||
| Round 8 | Men's Vic League 2 | MHSOB | 3 | -16 | 1010 | -2 | 32 |
| Werribee | 6 | +16 | 1162 | +0 | 27 | ||
| Round 8 | Men's Vic League 2 | Frankston | 2 | -20 | 1002 | -2 | 32 |
| St Bede's | 5 | +20 | 1112 | +0 | 28 | ||
| Round 8 | Men's Vic League 2 | GD Warriors | 5 | +33 | 1119 | +1 | 28 |
| Brunswick | 1 | -33 | 1160 | -1 | 27 | ||
| Round 7 | Men's Vic League 2 | Knox | 2 | +0 | 1021 | +0 | 32 |
| Frankston | 2 | +0 | 1022 | +0 | 31 | ||
| Round 7 | Men's Vic League 2 | Brunswick | 3 | -15 | 1193 | +0 | 25 |
| Bayside/Powerhouse | 4 | +15 | 1192 | +0 | 26 | ||
| Round 7 | Men's Vic League 2 | St Bede's | 5 | +16 | 1092 | +0 | 28 |
| Caroline Springs | 0 | -16 | 903 | +0 | 36 | ||
| Round 7 | Men's Vic League 2 | Werribee | 2 | -31 | 1146 | +0 | 27 |
| GD Warriors | 4 | +31 | 1086 | +0 | 29 | ||
| Round 6 | Men's Vic League 2 | Caroline Springs | 3 | -17 | 919 | -1 | 36 |
| MHSOB | 5 | +17 | 1026 | +1 | 31 | ||
| Round 6 | Men's Vic League 2 | Bayside/Powerhouse | 1 | +12 | 1177 | +1 | 26 |
| Werribee | 0 | -12 | 1177 | -1 | 27 | ||
| Round 6 | Men's Vic League 2 | Frankston | 1 | -14 | 1022 | -1 | 31 |
| Brunswick | 4 | +14 | 1208 | +0 | 25 | ||
| Round 6 | Men's Vic League 2 | St Bede's | 1 | -4 | 1076 | +0 | 28 |
| Knox | 1 | +4 | 1021 | +0 | 32 | ||
| Round 5 | Men's Vic League 2 | MHSOB | 4 | +2 | 1009 | +0 | 31 |
| GD Warriors | 4 | -2 | 1055 | +0 | 29 | ||
| Round 5 | Men's Vic League 2 | Knox | 3 | +16 | 1017 | +1 | 31 |
| Caroline Springs | 1 | -16 | 936 | -2 | 35 | ||
| Round 5 | Men's Vic League 2 | Brunswick | 3 | -8 | 1194 | +0 | 25 |
| St Bede's | 3 | +8 | 1080 | +0 | 28 | ||
| Round 5 | Men's Vic League 2 | Werribee | 2 | +5 | 1189 | +0 | 26 |
| Frankston | 1 | -5 | 1036 | +0 | 30 | ||
| Round 4 | Men's Vic League 2 | Caroline Springs | 3 | -10 | 952 | +0 | 33 |
| GD Warriors | 4 | +10 | 1057 | +0 | 28 | ||
| Round 4 | Men's Vic League 2 | Bayside/Powerhouse | 4 | +12 | 1165 | +0 | 27 |
| MHSOB | 1 | -12 | 1007 | -2 | 32 | ||
| Round 4 | Men's Vic League 2 | Knox | 2 | -12 | 1001 | -1 | 32 |
| Brunswick | 5 | +12 | 1202 | +0 | 26 | ||
| Round 4 | Men's Vic League 2 | St Bede's | 7 | +53 | 1072 | +2 | 28 |
| Werribee | 2 | -53 | 1184 | -1 | 26 | ||
| Round 3 | Men's Vic League 2 | MHSOB | 1 | -39 | 1019 | -3 | 31 |
| Frankston | 6 | +39 | 1041 | +4 | 28 | ||
| Round 3 | Men's Vic League 2 | Brunswick | 4 | +4 | 1190 | +0 | 26 |
| Caroline Springs | 3 | -4 | 962 | +0 | 33 | ||
| Round 3 | Men's Vic League 2 | GD Warriors | 2 | +26 | 1047 | +1 | 28 |
| Bayside/Powerhouse | 0 | -26 | 1153 | +0 | 27 | ||
| Round 3 | Men's Vic League 2 | Werribee | 3 | +8 | 1237 | +0 | 25 |
| Knox | 0 | -8 | 1013 | -2 | 32 | ||
| Round 2 | Men's Vic League 2 | Caroline Springs | 2 | -7 | 966 | +0 | 33 |
| Bayside/Powerhouse | 3 | +7 | 1179 | +0 | 26 | ||
| Round 2 | Men's Vic League 2 | Brunswick | 4 | +23 | 1186 | +1 | 26 |
| Werribee | 2 | -23 | 1229 | +0 | 25 | ||
| Round 2 | Men's Vic League 2 | Frankston | 0 | -22 | 1002 | -2 | 31 |
| GD Warriors | 2 | +22 | 1021 | +2 | 29 | ||
| Round 2 | Men's Vic League 2 | St Bede's | 4 | +32 | 1019 | +1 | 31 |
| MHSOB | 1 | -32 | 1058 | +0 | 28 | ||
| Round 1 | Men's Vic League 2 | Bayside/Powerhouse | 3 | +7 | 1172 | +0 | 26 |
| Frankston | 2 | -7 | 1024 | +0 | 29 | ||
| Round 1 | Men's Vic League 2 | MHSOB | 2 | -18 | 1090 | +0 | 28 |
| Knox | 3 | +18 | 1021 | +1 | 30 | ||
| Round 1 | Men's Vic League 2 | GD Warriors | 6 | +23 | 999 | +2 | 31 |
| St Bede's | 3 | -23 | 987 | -1 | 32 | ||
| Round 1 | Men's Vic League 2 | Werribee | 5 | +3 | 1252 | +0 | 25 |
| Caroline Springs | 4 | -3 | 973 | +0 | 33 | ||
Played schedule and next 5-game run home, ranked hardest to easiest
| Pos | Team | Division | Games in hand | SoS (Played) | Avg Opponent Elo (Played) | SoS (Run Home) | Avg Opponent Elo (Run Home) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bayside/Powerhouse | Vic League 2 | 4 | 38.6% opponent win rate | 1047 | 49.0% opponent win rate | 1127 |
| 2 | Knox | Vic League 2 | 4 | 41.6% opponent win rate | 1094 | 60.9% opponent win rate | 1122 |
| 3 | GD Warriors | Vic League 2 | 3 | 39.8% opponent win rate | 1056 | 45.9% opponent win rate | 1123 |
| 4 | Werribee | Vic League 2 | 3 | 42.3% opponent win rate | 1055 | 55.8% opponent win rate | 1085 |
| 5 | Brunswick | Vic League 2 | 4 | 41.0% opponent win rate | 1071 | 50.2% opponent win rate | 1076 |
| 6 | MHSOB | Vic League 2 | 3 | 51.2% opponent win rate | 1069 | 37.4% opponent win rate | 1070 |
| 7 | Frankston | Vic League 2 | 4 | 48.7% opponent win rate | 1088 | 39.4% opponent win rate | 1059 |
| 8 | Caroline Springs | Vic League 2 | 3 | 52.8% opponent win rate | 1107 | 35.7% opponent win rate | 1046 |
| 9 | St Bede's | Vic League 2 | 4 | 45.2% opponent win rate | 1094 | 37.3% opponent win rate | 1030 |
Opponent win rate is the displayed measure. SoS (Played) uses pre-game opponent and division-average Elo snapshots. SoS (Run Home) covers the next 5 games, uses current Elo and applies small-sample shrinkage toward neutral with k=5. Division averages are recalculated with each weekly ratings update. Pos ranks Run Home difficulty within the selected division.
Why this game?
It received the highest Game to Watch score among the upcoming Vic League 3 fixtures (20%). The model combines ladder impact (6%), shared race stakes (0%), and expected match closeness (83%). Current stakes: Live matchup; Old Trinity: 6pt below finals cutoff.
Previous encounter · 1
| Season | Round | Venue | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 6 | Away | Old Trinity | 4–0 | Hume |
Upcoming matches, winning expectancies, and estimates of Elo points exchanged
| Round | Match | Division | Current | Three-way outcome probability | Points Exchanged | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rank | Rating | Team win | Draw | Draw | Win × 1 | Win × 2 | Win × 3 | Win × 4 | Win × 5 | |||
| Round 15 | Gippsland Strikers | Vic League 3 | 31 | 1043 | 92% | 7% | -16 | +1 | +2 | +3 | +3 | +4 |
| East Gippsland | 43 | 527 | 1% | +16 | +34 | +45 | +57 | +69 | +80 | |||
| Round 15 | Hume | Vic League 3 | 41 | 708 | 31% | 13% | +4 | +22 | +30 | +37 | +45 | +53 |
| Old Trinity | 38 | 822 | 56% | -4 | +13 | +18 | +22 | +27 | +31 | |||
| Round 15 | La Trobe University | Vic League 3 | 32 | 1030 | 77% | 7% | -11 | +7 | +9 | +12 | +14 | +17 |
| Melbourne Sikhs | 39 | 812 | 16% | +11 | +28 | +38 | +48 | +58 | +67 | |||
| Round 15 | Melbourne Razorbacks | Vic League 3 | 42 | 614 | 11% | 7% | +13 | +30 | +41 | +51 | +62 | +72 |
| RMIT | 35 | 953 | 82% | -13 | +5 | +7 | +8 | +10 | +12 | |||
| Round 15 | Melton | Vic League 3 | 34 | 969 | 80% | 7% | -12 | +6 | +8 | +10 | +12 | +14 |
| Croydon | 40 | 711 | 13% | +12 | +29 | +40 | +50 | +60 | +70 | |||
| Round 16 | Croydon | Vic League 3 | 40 | 711 | 73% | 7% | -9 | +8 | +11 | +14 | +17 | +19 |
| East Gippsland | 43 | 527 | 20% | +9 | +27 | +36 | +46 | +55 | +65 | |||
| Round 16 | Melbourne Sikhs | Vic League 3 | 39 | 812 | 61% | 14% | -6 | +11 | +15 | +19 | +23 | +27 |
| Hume | 41 | 708 | 25% | +6 | +24 | +32 | +40 | +49 | +57 | |||
| Round 16 | Melton | Vic League 3 | 34 | 969 | 37% | 16% | +2 | +19 | +26 | +33 | +40 | +46 |
| La Trobe University | 32 | 1030 | 47% | -2 | +16 | +21 | +27 | +32 | +38 | |||
| Round 16 | Old Trinity | Vic League 3 | 38 | 822 | 76% | 7% | -10 | +7 | +10 | +12 | +15 | +17 |
| Melbourne Razorbacks | 42 | 614 | 17% | +10 | +28 | +37 | +47 | +57 | +67 | |||
| Round 16 | RMIT | Vic League 3 | 35 | 953 | 32% | 17% | +3 | +21 | +28 | +35 | +43 | +50 |
| Gippsland Strikers | 31 | 1043 | 51% | -3 | +14 | +19 | +24 | +29 | +34 | |||
| Round 17 | Croydon | Vic League 3 | 40 | 711 | 12% | 7% | +12 | +30 | +40 | +50 | +61 | +71 |
| La Trobe University | 32 | 1030 | 81% | -12 | +5 | +7 | +9 | +11 | +13 | |||
| Round 17 | East Gippsland | Vic League 3 | 43 | 527 | 6% | 7% | +14 | +32 | +43 | +54 | +65 | +76 |
| RMIT | 35 | 953 | 87% | -14 | +3 | +4 | +5 | +6 | +8 | |||
| Round 17 | Gippsland Strikers | Vic League 3 | 31 | 1043 | 77% | 7% | -11 | +7 | +9 | +12 | +14 | +16 |
| Old Trinity | 38 | 822 | 16% | +11 | +28 | +38 | +48 | +58 | +68 | |||
| Round 17 | Hume | Vic League 3 | 41 | 708 | 17% | 7% | +10 | +28 | +38 | +47 | +57 | +67 |
| Melton | 34 | 969 | 76% | -10 | +7 | +10 | +12 | +15 | +17 | |||
| Round 17 | Melbourne Razorbacks | Vic League 3 | 42 | 614 | 21% | 13% | +8 | +26 | +35 | +43 | +52 | +61 |
| Melbourne Sikhs | 39 | 812 | 67% | -8 | +9 | +13 | +16 | +19 | +23 | |||
| Round 18 | La Trobe University | Vic League 3 | 32 | 1030 | 85% | 7% | -13 | +4 | +6 | +7 | +9 | +10 |
| Hume | 41 | 708 | 8% | +13 | +31 | +42 | +52 | +63 | +74 | |||
| Round 18 | Melbourne Sikhs | Vic League 3 | 39 | 812 | 20% | 7% | +9 | +27 | +36 | +46 | +55 | +64 |
| Gippsland Strikers | 31 | 1043 | 73% | -9 | +8 | +11 | +14 | +17 | +20 | |||
| Round 18 | Melton | Vic League 3 | 34 | 969 | 86% | 7% | -14 | +4 | +5 | +6 | +7 | +8 |
| Melbourne Razorbacks | 42 | 614 | 7% | +14 | +31 | +42 | +53 | +65 | +76 | |||
| Round 18 | Old Trinity | Vic League 3 | 38 | 822 | 83% | 7% | -13 | +5 | +6 | +8 | +10 | +11 |
| East Gippsland | 43 | 527 | 10% | +13 | +30 | +41 | +51 | +62 | +73 | |||
| Round 18 | RMIT | Vic League 3 | 35 | 953 | 79% | 7% | -11 | +6 | +8 | +11 | +13 | +15 |
| Croydon | 40 | 711 | 14% | +11 | +29 | +39 | +49 | +59 | +69 | |||
Current-season results
| Round | Division | Match | Rating | Rank | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Club | Score | Change | New | Change | Current | ||
| Round 14 | Men's Vic League 3 | Croydon | 0 | -9 | 711 | +0 | 41 |
| Gippsland Strikers | 8 | +9 | 1043 | +0 | 31 | ||
| Round 14 | Men's Vic League 3 | East Gippsland | 3 | +17 | 527 | +0 | 43 |
| Melbourne Razorbacks | 2 | -17 | 614 | +0 | 42 | ||
| Round 14 | Men's Vic League 3 | Melbourne Sikhs | 3 | -19 | 812 | +0 | 39 |
| Melton | 7 | +19 | 969 | +1 | 34 | ||
| Round 14 | Men's Vic League 3 | Old Trinity | 0 | -10 | 822 | +0 | 38 |
| La Trobe University | 2 | +10 | 1030 | +1 | 32 | ||
| Round 14 | Men's Vic League 3 | RMIT | 7 | +13 | 953 | +1 | 35 |
| Hume | 0 | -13 | 708 | -1 | 41 | ||
| Round 13 | Men's Vic League 3 | Melton | 3 | +14 | 950 | +1 | 35 |
| Old Trinity | 0 | -14 | 832 | +0 | 38 | ||
| Round 13 | Men's Vic League 3 | Hume | 2 | -10 | 721 | -1 | 41 |
| East Gippsland | 2 | +10 | 510 | +0 | 43 | ||
| Round 13 | Men's Vic League 3 | La Trobe University | 1 | +8 | 1020 | +0 | 33 |
| RMIT | 0 | -8 | 940 | +0 | 36 | ||
| Round 13 | Men's Vic League 3 | Melbourne Razorbacks | 2 | -6 | 631 | +0 | 42 |
| Gippsland Strikers | 12 | +6 | 1034 | +1 | 31 | ||
| Round 13 | Men's Vic League 3 | Melbourne Sikhs | 5 | +8 | 831 | +0 | 39 |
| Croydon | 4 | -8 | 720 | -1 | 41 | ||
| Round 12 | Men's Vic League 3 | Croydon | 4 | +20 | 728 | +0 | 41 |
| Melbourne Razorbacks | 1 | -20 | 637 | +0 | 42 | ||
| Round 12 | Men's Vic League 3 | Gippsland Strikers | 9 | +7 | 1028 | +0 | 32 |
| Hume | 2 | -7 | 731 | +0 | 40 | ||
| Round 12 | Men's Vic League 3 | East Gippsland | 0 | -3 | 500 | +0 | 43 |
| La Trobe University | 6 | +3 | 1012 | +0 | 33 | ||
| Round 12 | Men's Vic League 3 | Old Trinity | 2 | +11 | 846 | +0 | 38 |
| Melbourne Sikhs | 1 | -11 | 823 | +0 | 39 | ||
| Round 12 | Men's Vic League 3 | RMIT | 3 | +12 | 948 | +1 | 35 |
| Melton | 2 | -12 | 936 | -1 | 36 | ||
| Round 11 | Men's Vic League 3 | Melton | 5 | +3 | 948 | +0 | 35 |
| East Gippsland | 0 | -3 | 503 | +0 | 43 | ||
| Round 11 | Men's Vic League 3 | Melbourne Sikhs | 3 | -10 | 834 | +0 | 38 |
| RMIT | 4 | +10 | 936 | +0 | 36 | ||
| Round 11 | Men's Vic League 3 | Hume | 2 | -17 | 738 | +0 | 40 |
| Melbourne Razorbacks | 3 | +17 | 657 | +0 | 42 | ||
| Round 11 | Men's Vic League 3 | La Trobe University | 0 | -2 | 1009 | +0 | 33 |
| Gippsland Strikers | 0 | +2 | 1021 | +0 | 32 | ||
| Round 11 | Men's Vic League 3 | Old Trinity | 5 | +15 | 835 | +1 | 38 |
| Croydon | 2 | -15 | 708 | +0 | 41 | ||
| Round 10 | Men's Vic League 3 | Croydon | 3 | +1 | 723 | +0 | 41 |
| Hume | 3 | -1 | 755 | +0 | 40 | ||
| Round 10 | Men's Vic League 3 | Gippsland Strikers | 4 | +17 | 1019 | +1 | 32 |
| Melton | 1 | -17 | 945 | -1 | 35 | ||
| Round 10 | Men's Vic League 3 | East Gippsland | 2 | -6 | 506 | +0 | 43 |
| Melbourne Sikhs | 5 | +6 | 844 | +0 | 38 | ||
| Round 10 | Men's Vic League 3 | Melbourne Razorbacks | 2 | -2 | 640 | +0 | 42 |
| La Trobe University | 3 | +2 | 1011 | +0 | 33 | ||
| Round 10 | Men's Vic League 3 | RMIT | 0 | -6 | 926 | +0 | 36 |
| Old Trinity | 0 | +6 | 820 | +0 | 39 | ||
| Round 9 | Men's Vic League 3 | Gippsland Strikers | 5 | +15 | 1002 | +0 | 33 |
| Melbourne Sikhs | 0 | -15 | 838 | +0 | 38 | ||
| Round 9 | Men's Vic League 3 | Croydon | 0 | -10 | 722 | +0 | 41 |
| RMIT | 2 | +10 | 932 | +0 | 36 | ||
| Round 9 | Men's Vic League 3 | East Gippsland | 0 | -10 | 512 | +0 | 43 |
| Old Trinity | 13 | +10 | 814 | +0 | 39 | ||
| Round 9 | Men's Vic League 3 | Hume | 1 | -4 | 756 | +0 | 40 |
| La Trobe University | 2 | +4 | 1009 | +0 | 32 | ||
| Round 9 | Men's Vic League 3 | Melbourne Razorbacks | 1 | -9 | 642 | +0 | 42 |
| Melton | 7 | +9 | 962 | +0 | 34 | ||
| Round 8 | Men's Vic League 3 | Melton | 3 | +8 | 953 | +1 | 34 |
| Hume | 1 | -8 | 760 | +0 | 40 | ||
| Round 8 | Men's Vic League 3 | Melbourne Sikhs | 6 | +5 | 853 | +0 | 38 |
| Melbourne Razorbacks | 5 | -5 | 651 | +0 | 42 | ||
| Round 8 | Men's Vic League 3 | La Trobe University | 4 | +5 | 1005 | +0 | 32 |
| Croydon | 2 | -5 | 732 | +0 | 41 | ||
| Round 8 | Men's Vic League 3 | Old Trinity | 1 | -16 | 804 | +0 | 39 |
| Gippsland Strikers | 4 | +16 | 987 | +0 | 33 | ||
| Round 8 | Men's Vic League 3 | RMIT | 13 | +6 | 922 | +0 | 36 |
| East Gippsland | 0 | -6 | 522 | +0 | 43 | ||
| Round 7 | Men's Vic League 3 | Gippsland Strikers | 8 | +28 | 971 | +3 | 33 |
| RMIT | 0 | -28 | 916 | -1 | 36 | ||
| Round 7 | Men's Vic League 3 | East Gippsland | 0 | -17 | 528 | +0 | 43 |
| Croydon | 6 | +17 | 737 | +0 | 41 | ||
| Round 7 | Men's Vic League 3 | Hume | 3 | +4 | 768 | +0 | 40 |
| Melbourne Sikhs | 3 | -4 | 848 | +0 | 38 | ||
| Round 7 | Men's Vic League 3 | La Trobe University | 3 | +20 | 1000 | +0 | 32 |
| Melton | 0 | -20 | 945 | -1 | 35 | ||
| Round 7 | Men's Vic League 3 | Melbourne Razorbacks | 1 | -19 | 656 | +0 | 42 |
| Old Trinity | 6 | +19 | 820 | +0 | 39 | ||
| Round 6 | Men's Vic League 3 | Melbourne Sikhs | 1 | -23 | 852 | -1 | 38 |
| La Trobe University | 5 | +23 | 980 | +0 | 32 | ||
| Round 6 | Men's Vic League 3 | Croydon | 1 | -16 | 720 | +0 | 41 |
| Melton | 7 | +16 | 965 | +1 | 33 | ||
| Round 6 | Men's Vic League 3 | East Gippsland | 0 | -6 | 545 | +0 | 43 |
| Gippsland Strikers | 11 | +6 | 943 | +0 | 35 | ||
| Round 6 | Men's Vic League 3 | Old Trinity | 4 | +26 | 801 | +1 | 39 |
| Hume | 0 | -26 | 764 | -1 | 40 | ||
| Round 6 | Men's Vic League 3 | RMIT | 6 | +12 | 944 | +1 | 35 |
| Melbourne Razorbacks | 0 | -12 | 675 | +0 | 42 | ||
| Round 5 | Men's Vic League 3 | Melton | 4 | +21 | 949 | +2 | 33 |
| Melbourne Sikhs | 0 | -21 | 875 | +0 | 37 | ||
| Round 5 | Men's Vic League 3 | Gippsland Strikers | 11 | +13 | 937 | +0 | 36 |
| Croydon | 0 | -13 | 736 | +0 | 41 | ||
| Round 5 | Men's Vic League 3 | Hume | 2 | +7 | 790 | +1 | 39 |
| RMIT | 2 | -7 | 932 | -1 | 36 | ||
| Round 5 | Men's Vic League 3 | La Trobe University | 3 | +9 | 957 | +2 | 32 |
| Old Trinity | 1 | -9 | 775 | +0 | 40 | ||
| Round 5 | Men's Vic League 3 | Melbourne Razorbacks | 2 | +8 | 687 | +0 | 42 |
| East Gippsland | 1 | -8 | 551 | +0 | 43 | ||
| Round 4 | Men's Vic League 3 | Gippsland Strikers | 7 | +10 | 924 | +2 | 34 |
| Melbourne Razorbacks | 0 | -10 | 679 | +0 | 42 | ||
| Round 4 | Men's Vic League 3 | Croydon | 4 | +19 | 749 | +0 | 41 |
| Melbourne Sikhs | 3 | -19 | 896 | -1 | 37 | ||
| Round 4 | Men's Vic League 3 | East Gippsland | 0 | -15 | 559 | +0 | 43 |
| Hume | 8 | +15 | 783 | +0 | 40 | ||
| Round 4 | Men's Vic League 3 | Old Trinity | 1 | -9 | 784 | +0 | 39 |
| Melton | 2 | +9 | 928 | +1 | 34 | ||
| Round 4 | Men's Vic League 3 | RMIT | 0 | -39 | 939 | -2 | 34 |
| La Trobe University | 5 | +39 | 948 | +3 | 33 | ||
| Round 3 | Men's Vic League 3 | Melton | 3 | +14 | 919 | +0 | 35 |
| RMIT | 2 | -14 | 978 | +0 | 32 | ||
| Round 3 | Men's Vic League 3 | Hume | 1 | -23 | 768 | -1 | 40 |
| Gippsland Strikers | 9 | +23 | 914 | +1 | 36 | ||
| Round 3 | Men's Vic League 3 | La Trobe University | 14 | +7 | 909 | +0 | 37 |
| East Gippsland | 0 | -7 | 574 | +0 | 43 | ||
| Round 3 | Men's Vic League 3 | Melbourne Razorbacks | 1 | +2 | 689 | +0 | 42 |
| Croydon | 1 | -2 | 730 | +0 | 41 | ||
| Round 3 | Men's Vic League 3 | Melbourne Sikhs | 2 | -8 | 915 | -1 | 35 |
| Old Trinity | 2 | +8 | 793 | +0 | 39 | ||
| Round 2 | Men's Vic League 3 | Gippsland Strikers | 4 | +25 | 891 | +1 | 37 |
| La Trobe University | 1 | -25 | 902 | +0 | 35 | ||
| Round 2 | Men's Vic League 3 | Croydon | 0 | -11 | 732 | +0 | 41 |
| Old Trinity | 1 | +11 | 785 | +0 | 40 | ||
| Round 2 | Men's Vic League 3 | East Gippsland | 0 | -9 | 581 | +0 | 43 |
| Melton | 9 | +9 | 905 | +1 | 35 | ||
| Round 2 | Men's Vic League 3 | Melbourne Razorbacks | 3 | +6 | 687 | +0 | 42 |
| Hume | 3 | -6 | 791 | +0 | 39 | ||
| Round 2 | Men's Vic League 3 | RMIT | 6 | +31 | 992 | +0 | 32 |
| Melbourne Sikhs | 1 | -31 | 923 | -1 | 34 | ||
| Round 1 | Men's Vic League 3 | Melton | 3 | -4 | 896 | +0 | 36 |
| Gippsland Strikers | 3 | +4 | 866 | +0 | 38 | ||
| Round 1 | Men's Vic League 3 | Hume | 2 | -3 | 797 | +0 | 39 |
| Croydon | 2 | +3 | 743 | +0 | 41 | ||
| Round 1 | Men's Vic League 3 | La Trobe University | 2 | +4 | 927 | +0 | 35 |
| Melbourne Razorbacks | 1 | -4 | 681 | +0 | 42 | ||
| Round 1 | Men's Vic League 3 | Old Trinity | 0 | -12 | 774 | +0 | 40 |
| RMIT | 2 | +12 | 961 | +2 | 32 | ||
| Round 1 | Men's Vic League 3 | Melbourne Sikhs | 4 | +5 | 954 | +1 | 33 |
| East Gippsland | 0 | -5 | 590 | +0 | 43 | ||
Played schedule and next 5-game run home, ranked hardest to easiest
| Pos | Team | Division | Games in hand | SoS (Played) | Avg Opponent Elo (Played) | SoS (Run Home) | Avg Opponent Elo (Run Home) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Hume | Vic League 3 | 4 | 42.9% opponent win rate | 802 | 57.1% opponent win rate | 908 |
| 2 | Melbourne Razorbacks | Vic League 3 | 4 | 43.9% opponent win rate | 819 | 50.0% opponent win rate | 889 |
| 3 | East Gippsland | Vic League 3 | 4 | 44.4% opponent win rate | 838 | 51.8% opponent win rate | 882 |
| 4 | Croydon | Vic League 3 | 4 | 41.3% opponent win rate | 829 | 55.4% opponent win rate | 870 |
| 5 | Melbourne Sikhs | Vic League 3 | 4 | 42.3% opponent win rate | 808 | 48.2% opponent win rate | 849 |
| 6 | La Trobe University | Vic League 3 | 4 | 38.8% opponent win rate | 798 | 32.1% opponent win rate | 800 |
| 7 | Gippsland Strikers | Vic League 3 | 4 | 38.3% opponent win rate | 807 | 33.9% opponent win rate | 778 |
| 8 | Melton | Vic League 3 | 4 | 40.8% opponent win rate | 814 | 32.1% opponent win rate | 766 |
| 9 | RMIT | Vic League 3 | 4 | 42.9% opponent win rate | 826 | 32.1% opponent win rate | 724 |
| 10 | Old Trinity | Vic League 3 | 4 | 45.9% opponent win rate | 849 | 28.6% opponent win rate | 723 |
Opponent win rate is the displayed measure. SoS (Played) uses pre-game opponent and division-average Elo snapshots. SoS (Run Home) covers the next 5 games, uses current Elo and applies small-sample shrinkage toward neutral with k=5. Division averages are recalculated with each weekly ratings update. Pos ranks Run Home difficulty within the selected division.