Performance vs Expectation

Current-season actual output compared with Elo-based historical expectation

Updated Tue 15 Sep 2026, 21:52 AEST

Biggest overperformerGippsland Strikers+12.2 points vs expectation
Biggest underperformerMelbourne Sikhs−11.4 points vs expectation

Actual points vs expected points

Expected output is based on historical results and scoring patterns at similar pre-match Elo gaps, including large mismatches.

Expected Actual Above expected Below expected
Actual points versus expected pointsTeams sorted by expected points, highest first. Grey dots show expected points; bronze dots show actual points. Solid green lines indicate above expectation; dotted orange lines indicate below expectation.0102030405060Geelong: expected 51.7, actual 55, difference +3.3 pointsGeelong51.755MCC: expected 51.3, actual 56, difference +4.7 pointsMCC51.356Old Xaverians: expected 50.3, actual 50, difference -0.3 pointsOld Xaverians50.350Camberwell: expected 46.6, actual 53, difference +6.4 pointsCamberwell46.653Doncaster: expected 44.8, actual 52, difference +7.2 pointsDoncaster44.852Gippsland Strikers: expected 43.8, actual 56, difference +12.2 pointsGippsland Strikers43.856Southern United: expected 43.7, actual 41, difference -2.7 pointsSouthern United43.741PEGS: expected 43.6, actual 50, difference +6.4 pointsPEGS43.650La Trobe University: expected 42.6, actual 46, difference +3.4 pointsLa Trobe University42.646Melton: expected 41.0, actual 46, difference +5.0 pointsMelton41.046Yarra: expected 39.9, actual 42, difference +2.1 pointsYarra39.942MUHC: expected 39.8, actual 34, difference -5.8 pointsMUHC39.834Craigieburn: expected 38.0, actual 43, difference +5.0 pointsCraigieburn38.043TEM: expected 37.1, actual 37, difference -0.1 pointsTEM37.137GD Warriors: expected 36.4, actual 40, difference +3.6 pointsGD Warriors36.440Brunswick: expected 34.7, actual 38, difference +3.3 pointsBrunswick34.738KBH Brumbies: expected 34.6, actual 40, difference +5.4 pointsKBH Brumbies34.640Hawthorn: expected 34.5, actual 32, difference -2.5 pointsHawthorn34.532Bayside/Powerhouse: expected 33.5, actual 35, difference +1.5 pointsBayside/Powerhouse33.535Altona: expected 32.9, actual 29, difference -3.9 pointsAltona32.929Melbourne Sikhs: expected 31.4, actual 20, difference -11.4 pointsMelbourne Sikhs31.420RMIT: expected 30.4, actual 33, difference +2.6 pointsRMIT30.433Waverley: expected 29.0, actual 30, difference +1.0 pointsWaverley29.030Werribee: expected 28.5, actual 22, difference -6.5 pointsWerribee28.522Greensborough: expected 28.0, actual 29, difference +1.0 pointsGreensborough28.029St Bede's: expected 28.0, actual 34, difference +6.0 pointsSt Bede's28.034Old Trinity: expected 26.2, actual 27, difference +0.8 pointsOld Trinity26.227Footscray: expected 24.9, actual 18, difference -6.9 pointsFootscray24.918North West Lightning: expected 24.8, actual 22, difference -2.8 pointsNorth West Lightning24.822Casey: expected 22.9, actual 22, difference -0.9 pointsCasey22.922Frankston: expected 19.9, actual 19, difference -0.9 pointsFrankston19.919WestVic: expected 19.2, actual 19, difference -0.2 pointsWestVic19.219Croydon: expected 18.3, actual 15, difference -3.3 pointsCroydon18.315Hume: expected 18.2, actual 9, difference -9.2 pointsHume18.29Essendon: expected 16.2, actual 11, difference -5.2 pointsEssendon16.211Monash University: expected 15.4, actual 12, difference -3.4 pointsMonash University15.412Knox: expected 14.6, actual 17, difference +2.4 pointsKnox14.617MHSOB: expected 14.4, actual 8, difference -6.4 pointsMHSOB14.48Melbourne Razorbacks: expected 13.3, actual 13, difference -0.3 pointsMelbourne Razorbacks13.313ECHO: expected 11.3, actual 10, difference -1.3 pointsECHO11.310Caroline Springs: expected 8.4, actual 6, difference -2.4 pointsCaroline Springs8.46Mentone: expected 7.5, actual 0, difference -7.5 pointsMentone7.50East Gippsland: expected 7.0, actual 4, difference -3.0 pointsEast Gippsland7.04Points
Pos Team Division W-D-L Pts xPts ΔPts GF xGF GA xGA GD xGD ΔGD
1 Geelong Vic League 1 17-4-3 55 51.7 +3.3 103 88.0 31 40.1 +72 +47.9 +24.1
2 MCC Premier League 18-2-4 56 51.3 +4.7 105 87.4 47 40.2 +58 +47.2 +10.8
3 Old Xaverians Vic League 1 15-5-3 50 50.3 −0.3 73 89.2 32 37.4 +41 +51.8 −10.8
4 Camberwell Premier League 17-2-5 53 46.6 +6.4 89 81.3 46 45.3 +43 +36.0 +7.0
5 Doncaster Premier League 16-4-3 52 44.8 +7.2 73 74.5 40 43.1 +33 +31.4 +1.6
6 Gippsland Strikers Vic League 3 18-2-0 56 43.8 +12.2 141 80.6 24 31.9 +117 +48.6 +68.4
7 Southern United Premier League 12-5-6 41 43.7 −2.7 66 75.1 50 44.3 +16 +30.7 −14.7
8 PEGS Vic League 1 16-2-6 50 43.6 +6.4 79 74.6 38 48.4 +41 +26.2 +14.8
9 La Trobe University Vic League 3 15-1-5 46 42.6 +3.4 73 78.7 24 37.3 +49 +41.4 +7.6
10 Melton Vic League 3 15-1-4 46 41.0 +5.0 83 73.9 31 34.9 +52 +39.0 +13.0
11 Yarra Vic League 1 13-3-7 42 39.9 +2.1 63 68.4 44 48.9 +19 +19.5 −0.5
12 MUHC Vic League 1 11-1-10 34 39.8 −5.8 51 67.8 48 46.1 +3 +21.7 −18.7
13 Craigieburn Vic League 1 13-4-8 43 38.0 +5.0 92 66.9 79 60.2 +13 +6.7 +6.3
14 TEM Vic League 1 12-1-10 37 37.1 −0.1 65 64.9 60 53.1 +5 +11.7 −6.7
15 GD Warriors Vic League 2 13-1-4 40 36.4 +3.6 62 60.1 32 32.7 +30 +27.3 +2.7
16 Brunswick Vic League 2 11-5-3 38 34.7 +3.3 65 58.1 30 38.2 +35 +19.9 +15.1
17 KBH Brumbies Premier League 12-4-9 40 34.6 +5.4 83 63.2 67 63.7 +16 −0.5 +16.5
18 Hawthorn Premier League 9-5-9 32 34.5 −2.5 58 61.8 54 55.7 +4 +6.1 −2.1
19 Bayside/Powerhouse Vic League 2 11-2-5 35 33.5 +1.5 48 56.1 40 35.7 +8 +20.4 −12.4
20 Altona Premier League 8-5-9 29 32.9 −3.9 60 56.9 55 53.0 +5 +3.8 +1.2
21 Melbourne Sikhs Vic League 3 6-2-10 20 31.4 −11.4 50 59.0 72 39.7 −22 +19.3 −41.3
22 RMIT Vic League 3 10-3-6 33 30.4 +2.6 69 54.7 36 44.5 +33 +10.2 +22.8
23 Waverley Premier League 8-6-8 30 29.0 +1.0 55 53.5 55 58.3 +0 −4.9 +4.9
24 Werribee Vic League 2 7-1-8 22 28.5 −6.5 41 48.4 46 33.2 −5 +15.2 −20.2
25 Greensborough Premier League 9-2-11 29 28.0 +1.0 55 51.7 65 59.6 −10 −7.9 −2.1
26 St Bede's Vic League 2 10-4-3 34 28.0 +6.0 48 48.2 34 38.2 +14 +10.0 +4.0
27 Old Trinity Vic League 3 8-3-7 27 26.2 +0.8 56 47.6 33 45.9 +23 +1.7 +21.3
28 Footscray Premier League 5-3-14 18 24.9 −6.9 52 47.9 72 64.5 −20 −16.5 −3.5
29 North West Lightning Vic League 1 6-4-12 22 24.8 −2.8 53 47.3 72 65.1 −19 −17.8 −1.2
30 Casey Vic League 1 7-1-14 22 22.9 −0.9 47 45.0 65 67.3 −18 −22.4 +4.4
31 Frankston Vic League 2 6-1-9 19 19.9 −0.9 37 36.3 40 43.6 −3 −7.3 +4.3
32 WestVic Vic League 1 6-1-15 19 19.2 −0.2 44 40.6 79 73.7 −35 −33.1 −1.9
33 Croydon Vic League 3 4-3-11 15 18.3 −3.3 37 36.5 80 57.5 −43 −21.0 −22.0
34 Hume Vic League 3 1-6-11 9 18.2 −9.2 37 35.8 76 61.5 −39 −25.6 −13.4
35 Essendon Premier League 3-2-17 11 16.2 −5.2 45 37.1 92 80.0 −47 −42.9 −4.1
36 Monash University Vic League 1 3-3-16 12 15.4 −3.4 30 35.9 79 83.4 −49 −47.5 −1.5
37 Knox Vic League 2 5-2-9 17 14.6 +2.4 35 30.4 40 51.7 −5 −21.3 +16.3
38 MHSOB Vic League 2 2-2-12 8 14.4 −6.4 32 30.3 72 53.1 −40 −22.8 −17.2
39 Melbourne Razorbacks Vic League 3 3-4-11 13 13.3 −0.3 35 29.9 74 69.8 −39 −39.9 +0.9
40 ECHO Vic League 1 3-1-18 10 11.3 −1.3 39 30.6 112 95.4 −73 −64.8 −8.2
41 Caroline Springs Vic League 2 2-0-14 6 8.4 −2.4 32 23.3 66 64.8 −34 −41.4 +7.4
42 Mentone Premier League 0-0-22 0 7.5 −7.5 23 25.8 121 108.4 −98 −82.5 −15.5
43 East Gippsland Vic League 3 1-1-16 4 7.0 −3.0 9 20.9 140 94.5 −131 −73.7 −57.3

xPts uses win, draw and loss rates from historical matches with similar pre-match Elo gaps, with more weight on recent seasons and the same division. xGF and xGA use scoring at similar gaps across divisions. Only seasons before the displayed season are used. Estimates vary continuously beyond 200 Elo; sparse gaps borrow evidence from a wider range of matches. These are Elo-based scoring estimates, not shot-based expected goals. Differences include both team performance and model error.

Expected vs Actual Margin

One dot per match. Both margins are home goals minus away goals.

Diagonal: actual equals expected. Above it, the home team exceeded expectation; below it, the away team did better than expected. Hover or tap a dot for match details. Expectations use earlier seasons only; seasons shown begin after the 2023?24 model-tuning period.