Performance vs Expectation
Current-season actual output compared with Elo-based historical expectation
Actual points vs expected points
Expected output is based on historical results and scoring patterns for the same pre-match Elo-gap band.
Expected
Actual
| Pos | Team | Division | W-D-L | Pts | xPts | ΔPts | GF | xGF | GA | xGA | GD | xGD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Geelong | Vic League 1 | 12-3-2 | 39 | 39.0 | +0.0 | 77 | 67.7 | 22 | 25.8 | +55 | +41.9 |
| 2 | MCC | Premier League | 12-2-3 | 38 | 38.9 | -0.9 | 68 | 67.3 | 33 | 25.6 | +35 | +41.7 |
| 3 | Old Xaverians | Vic League 1 | 12-4-1 | 40 | 38.2 | +1.8 | 56 | 65.1 | 23 | 26.6 | +33 | +38.5 |
| 4 | Doncaster | Premier League | 12-3-2 | 39 | 35.4 | +3.6 | 56 | 58.7 | 27 | 29.0 | +29 | +29.6 |
| 5 | Southern United | Premier League | 9-5-3 | 32 | 34.9 | -2.9 | 48 | 57.7 | 36 | 29.8 | +12 | +27.9 |
| 6 | MUHC | Vic League 1 | 8-1-8 | 25 | 34.0 | -9.0 | 39 | 58.9 | 35 | 31.5 | +4 | +27.5 |
| 7 | PEGS | Vic League 1 | 12-2-4 | 38 | 34.0 | +4.0 | 65 | 58.6 | 27 | 34.9 | +38 | +23.7 |
| 8 | TEM | Vic League 1 | 9-1-7 | 28 | 33.2 | -5.2 | 50 | 57.1 | 45 | 32.4 | +5 | +24.7 |
| 9 | Camberwell | Premier League | 12-2-3 | 38 | 32.8 | +5.2 | 64 | 55.7 | 32 | 32.2 | +32 | +23.5 |
| 10 | La Trobe University | Vic League 3 | 12-1-1 | 37 | 30.3 | +6.7 | 51 | 52.1 | 12 | 23.1 | +39 | +29.0 |
| 11 | Gippsland Strikers | Vic League 3 | 12-2-0 | 38 | 29.7 | +8.3 | 95 | 51.6 | 11 | 23.8 | +84 | +27.8 |
| 12 | Werribee | Vic League 2 | 6-1-6 | 19 | 28.4 | -9.4 | 34 | 48.7 | 33 | 20.9 | +1 | +27.8 |
| 13 | Yarra | Vic League 1 | 11-2-4 | 35 | 27.5 | +7.5 | 45 | 47.0 | 27 | 38.7 | +18 | +8.3 |
| 14 | Melton | Vic League 3 | 10-1-3 | 31 | 27.4 | +3.6 | 56 | 46.9 | 22 | 26.4 | +34 | +20.6 |
| 15 | RMIT | Vic League 3 | 8-2-4 | 26 | 26.6 | -0.6 | 47 | 45.3 | 25 | 26.9 | +22 | +18.4 |
| 16 | Altona | Premier League | 6-5-7 | 23 | 25.7 | -2.7 | 47 | 44.4 | 45 | 45.7 | +2 | -1.3 |
| 17 | Hawthorn | Premier League | 7-5-5 | 26 | 25.6 | +0.4 | 49 | 45.9 | 34 | 40.6 | +15 | +5.3 |
| 18 | Waverley | Premier League | 6-5-7 | 23 | 25.4 | -2.4 | 43 | 44.4 | 46 | 45.9 | -3 | -1.6 |
| 19 | Bayside/Powerhouse | Vic League 2 | 9-0-3 | 27 | 25.2 | +1.8 | 29 | 41.4 | 21 | 20.5 | +8 | +20.9 |
| 20 | Brunswick | Vic League 2 | 7-3-2 | 24 | 24.4 | -0.4 | 48 | 40.2 | 24 | 21.4 | +24 | +18.8 |
| 21 | Craigieburn | Vic League 1 | 9-3-6 | 30 | 23.9 | +6.1 | 68 | 43.6 | 55 | 49.1 | +13 | -5.5 |
| 22 | Melbourne Sikhs | Vic League 3 | 4-2-8 | 14 | 23.4 | -9.4 | 37 | 41.3 | 53 | 31.1 | -16 | +10.1 |
| 23 | Footscray | Premier League | 4-2-11 | 14 | 21.1 | -7.1 | 41 | 39.0 | 52 | 46.3 | -11 | -7.2 |
| 24 | GD Warriors | Vic League 2 | 10-1-2 | 31 | 20.3 | +10.7 | 46 | 35.8 | 21 | 30.4 | +25 | +5.4 |
| 25 | KBH Brumbies | Premier League | 7-4-6 | 25 | 19.8 | +5.2 | 49 | 36.6 | 41 | 49.8 | +8 | -13.2 |
| 26 | North West Lightning | Vic League 1 | 5-4-9 | 19 | 19.6 | -0.6 | 44 | 37.4 | 57 | 55.7 | -13 | -18.3 |
| 27 | Greensborough | Premier League | 8-1-9 | 25 | 18.5 | +6.5 | 38 | 36.8 | 47 | 56.8 | -9 | -20.0 |
| 28 | Hume | Vic League 3 | 1-6-7 | 9 | 17.5 | -8.5 | 30 | 33.0 | 52 | 41.6 | -22 | -8.7 |
| 29 | Old Trinity | Vic League 3 | 6-2-6 | 20 | 17.4 | +2.6 | 36 | 32.2 | 22 | 38.7 | +14 | -6.6 |
| 30 | St Bede's | Vic League 2 | 7-3-2 | 24 | 16.0 | +8.0 | 37 | 28.3 | 22 | 31.8 | +15 | -3.5 |
| 31 | WestVic | Vic League 1 | 4-1-13 | 13 | 15.6 | -2.6 | 36 | 32.7 | 73 | 61.9 | -37 | -29.2 |
| 32 | Casey | Vic League 1 | 5-1-11 | 16 | 15.1 | +0.9 | 36 | 31.1 | 54 | 57.1 | -18 | -26.0 |
| 33 | MHSOB | Vic League 2 | 2-1-10 | 7 | 14.3 | -7.3 | 24 | 27.2 | 62 | 38.7 | -38 | -11.5 |
| 34 | Croydon | Vic League 3 | 3-3-8 | 12 | 13.8 | -1.8 | 29 | 27.4 | 53 | 45.5 | -24 | -18.1 |
| 35 | Essendon | Premier League | 3-2-13 | 11 | 13.1 | -2.1 | 41 | 29.7 | 68 | 66.5 | -27 | -36.8 |
| 36 | Frankston | Vic League 2 | 4-1-7 | 13 | 12.9 | +0.1 | 28 | 24.4 | 28 | 35.9 | +0 | -11.5 |
| 37 | Monash University | Vic League 1 | 2-3-13 | 9 | 11.9 | -2.9 | 24 | 28.4 | 60 | 69.4 | -36 | -41.0 |
| 38 | Knox | Vic League 2 | 4-2-6 | 14 | 11.5 | +2.5 | 26 | 22.9 | 28 | 38.9 | -2 | -16.0 |
| 39 | ECHO | Vic League 1 | 3-1-14 | 10 | 10.8 | -0.8 | 31 | 27.2 | 93 | 71.8 | -62 | -44.6 |
| 40 | Melbourne Razorbacks | Vic League 3 | 2-2-10 | 8 | 10.6 | -2.6 | 24 | 23.9 | 63 | 52.5 | -39 | -28.6 |
| 41 | Mentone | Premier League | 0-0-17 | 0 | 8.2 | -8.2 | 18 | 23.4 | 101 | 71.3 | -83 | -47.9 |
| 42 | Caroline Springs | Vic League 2 | 1-0-12 | 3 | 8.2 | -5.2 | 24 | 19.8 | 57 | 50.3 | -33 | -30.4 |
| 43 | East Gippsland | Vic League 3 | 1-1-12 | 4 | 5.5 | -1.5 | 8 | 18.0 | 100 | 62.1 | -92 | -44.0 |
xPts uses historical favourite-win, draw and underdog-win rates for each Elo-gap band. xGF and xGA use the historical average goals scored by the favourite and underdog in that same band. This is a current-season performance measure, not a forecast of remaining matches.